#数字资产市场洞察 Bitcoin has stalled at the critical level of $81,300.

According to on-chain data platforms, this price level is the true market equilibrium point for Bitcoin. Its significance goes far beyond that—it separates two different market trends: a slow time decay correction or a more intense sell-off wave. Since October, the importance of this level has become even more apparent.

Why? Because the data is clear: over the past three months, especially after the flash crash on October 10, the correlation between large-cap cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin has remained high. They are almost tied together. Bitcoin has become the "bellwether" for the entire market.

This raises a question. What if Bitcoin continues to fall below this true mean? The impact won't be limited to the weaker altcoins. Historical data reveals a pattern: when Bitcoin runs below this level for an extended period, selling pressure tends to spread like a virus across the market.

The situation is even more complex now. Large-cap assets still move in sync with Bitcoin. High-volatility tokens have already experienced a first drop. Once the price falls below $81,300, this weakness is likely to spread back to core assets.

This is not about promoting some "market collapse theory." On the contrary, it defines where the market's balance point is. As long as Bitcoin stays above this mean, losses in the market will continue to be uneven. Long-tail assets may fall on their own, but core assets can hold.

But what if the $81,300 defense line is completely breached and cannot be quickly recovered? Past data shows that selling pressure will spread from the "long tail" to a larger scope. In this environment of thin liquidity and highly correlated large-cap assets, the result is a transition from a slow, suppressed correction to a more orderly, collective adjustment.