First, some bullish points

SOL buy at 104
ETH buy at 2480

Now, the conclusion, focus on Ethereum:
The night before the BoJ decision: ETH liquidity gap depth projection
Asset: ETH/USD
Current price: \bm{2,827 ( has broken} 2,900 liquidity wall )
Status: Negative Gamma Trap ( Short Gamma ) | Extreme Risk-Off ( Risk-Off )
1. Microstructure diagnosis: Why can't it stop?
The breach of $2,900 is not an ordinary correction but a structural breakdown.
1. Negative Gamma Effect: Market makers sold a large number of puts at $3,000. After falling below $2,900, these options become deeply in-the-money. To hedge Delta risk, market maker algorithms must mechanically sell in the spot market. The more it falls, the more it sells, forming a death spiral.
2. Liquidity gap: The order book shows that the depth below $2,800 - $2,720 is extremely thin. Long orders have been withdrawn to around $2,450, creating a vacuum zone in the middle, prone to slippage and sharp declines.
2. Core quantitative factor: the only alpha
Currently, the model shows ETH has a correlation coefficient of up to 0.85 with USD/JPY.
• Underlying logic: Japan raises interest rates -> Yen appreciates -> Carry Trade unwinding -> Global deleveraging -> ETH suffers.
• Conclusion: Don’t just look at candlesticks, focus on USD/JPY. As long as the Yen continues to appreciate, ETH has no bottom.
3. Algorithm scenario projection (Algo Scenarios )
Based on Friday’s BoJ decision (expected 25bp rate hike), our quantitative model generates the following paths:
• Scenario A: Mean reversion (40%)
• Conditions: Dovish rate hike (raised but soft language).
• Action: Classic "Sell Rumor, Buy News". Market makers cover short positions.
• Target: V-shape test of $2,950 (support turns into resistance).
• Scenario B: Momentum collapse (35%)
• Conditions: Hawkish rate hike (implying further hikes next year).
• Action: Trigger risk control circuit breaker, algorithm stops taking positions.
• Target: Break through $2,720 directly, heading towards $2,450 (white long-term moving average).
• Scenario C: Short squeeze surprise (25%)
• Conditions: Unexpected no rate hike.
• Target: Instant surge to $3,200.
4. Final trading instructions (Execution )
1. Regarding $2,827 (current price): This is the **“No Man's Land” (No Man's Land )**. Above is heavy short-term support at $2,900, below is no safe ground. Entry at this point offers poor risk-reward.
2. Regarding $2,450 (white line): This is a fair value gap (Fair Value Gap ). If a crash occurs, this is the only buy order point for institutional large funds.
3. Risk control: Tonight, implied volatility (IV ) is extremely high, options are expensive. Strictly prohibit high leverage to avoid a downward drift caused by liquidity drying up on Friday afternoon.
Conclusion: The market is pricing in liquidity contraction. Retail investors should avoid hedging against market makers at $2,800. Be patient for the iron bottom at $2,450 or the right-side opportunity after recapturing $2,950.