Citibank recently released their new forecast for the Federal Reserve. In simple terms: a 25 basis point cut in January and March next year, followed by another one in September 2026.

Many people get annoyed after hearing this. They brush it off and straightforwardly ask: Is Bitcoin going up or down?

Honestly, don’t treat investment bank forecasts as trading signals. They serve their own clients and reputation, not your position.

The playbook of investment bank reports is actually very clever—they list all possible scenarios. That way, no matter which way the market moves later, they can come back and say "See, we warned you." It’s not some conspiracy; it’s just how they survive.

Back to Bitcoin. In the short term, the market is driven by two things: sentiment and capital. Expectations of rate cuts are heating up, which theoretically benefits all risk assets, including Bitcoin. But this information is no longer new; the market has already partially digested it over the past few months.

What really matters is not "Will there be a rate cut," but "How will the economy perform after the rate cut." Two scenarios are completely different: a soft landing with rate cuts benefits the market gently; if the economy is heading for a hard landing, rate cuts will be followed by panic.

So instead of obsessing over an absolute answer on whether prices will rise or fall, it’s better to understand these points:

1. The views of investment banks are just one of the market noises. Listen to how they speak and understand how mainstream institutions tell their stories, but don’t follow blindly.

2. Bitcoin’s own logic—fund flows into spot ETFs, on-chain data, macro liquidity—these factors, at this stage, may weigh more than policy forecasts.

3. Distinguish between expectations that the market has already digested and truly new variables. Most of the time, the rate cut expectations you chase are just old news that has already been priced in.

Final words: trading is not about academic study. Every investment bank report is for self-preservation, and every market fluctuation is a battle between bulls and bears. Stick to your framework, stay alert to noise, and that’s the way to survive long-term.