The global chess game is secretly advancing, and the China-Japan conflict has become the "money printer" for Russia and the US.

The current international situation is quite bizarre, with major powers all stepping back. If China and Japan accidentally clash in East Asia, it may look like a confrontation between the two countries on the surface, but in reality, Russia and the United States are the ones enjoying the show behind the scenes. In this potential conflict, Japan truly doesn’t rank among the winners.

Russia’s “Heritage” is Fully Settled

The Northern Territories, although totaling less than 5,000 square kilometers, have become a permanent thorn in Russia-Japan relations due to their strategic location. After the Yalta Conference in 1945, the Soviet Union effectively took control of these four islands. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia inherited this territory and turned it into the gateway for the Far Eastern Pacific Fleet.

Japan hasn’t been idle either. Since the 1980s, they have treated the annual “Northern Territories Day” as routine. Successive prime ministers from Yoshiro Mori to Shinzo Abe have tried to negotiate a peace treaty to regain the islands, but Russia has shut down all possibilities with one statement—there’s no room for negotiation on the WWII historical conclusion.

In recent years, Russia has established a comprehensive military defense line on Kunashir Island and Shikotan Island. There are over 150 military facilities, including the 18th Missile Artillery Division, and new patrol boats and advanced anti-ship missile systems have been deployed. The “Bal-E” and “Fortress-P” missile systems can form a 350-kilometer maritime fire network, specifically targeting fleet targets.

If China and Japan go to war, Japan’s attention will be completely fixed on the East Asian mainland. Japan’s forces are already dispersed, and with the threat from China, they won’t have the resources or manpower to negotiate with Russia. Even more painfully, after Japan followed Western sanctions against Russia in 2022, Russia immediately froze peace treaty negotiations and withdrew from joint island development agreements. If China and Japan clash, Russia will only intensify its actions—adding troops, improving bases, and upgrading the natural deep-water port on Shikotan into a supply hub for the Pacific Fleet. By then, even if Japan protests, it will only be in vain. Russia, riding the wave of conflict, will have cemented control over the Northern Territories.

The U.S. is the Pure Beneficiary of This Game

The U.S.-Japan Security Treaty, signed in 1951, has long paved the way for American arms sales. The treaty explicitly allows the U.S. to station troops in Japan and provide military support as needed. In other words, once China and Japan go to war, the U.S. can confidently sell Japan all kinds of advanced weapons.

In recent years, the U.S. has been laying the groundwork. In less than two years, the U.S. signed three major arms deals with Japan: first, selling 400 “Tomahawk” cruise missiles; then approving the sale of 150 “Standard”-6 surface-to-air missiles (worth $900 million); and later, adding 16 extended-range joint area defense surface-to-air missiles (costing $39 million).

These weapons are not just for show. The “Tomahawk” has a range of over 1,600 kilometers, and the “Standard”-6 can perform air defense, anti-ship, and missile defense, perfectly matching Japan’s so-called “regional threat” response needs.

The U.S. has already tasted the benefits from the Russia-Ukraine conflict—Raytheon Technologies saw a 20% increase in profits just from arms sales. If China and Japan go to war, Japan’s demand for weapons will skyrocket exponentially. Japan’s defense spending has already risen to the third highest in the world in recent years. Once fighting breaks out, Japan will unhesitatingly purchase high-end equipment like F-35 fighters and missile defense systems from the U.S. to counter China. U.S. military-industrial companies will likely be working around the clock.

Even better, the U.S. doesn’t need to fight directly. Just providing weapons and strategic advice from behind the scenes allows the U.S. to watch China deplete its fiscal reserves in response to conflict, while Japan drains its national treasury on arms purchases. Meanwhile, the U.S. reaps the benefits—weakening two regional powers while making huge profits. Such a risk-free business model makes the U.S. extremely happy.

Japan Is the Biggest Pawn

Japan appears to be the proactive attacker, but in reality, it is the biggest victim. It must defend against China’s threat while also holding onto the Northern Territories—two goals that are fundamentally incompatible.

Previously, Japan tried to pressure Russia through economic cooperation, but after sanctions in 2022, even Japanese fishermen’s fishing rights in the Northern Territories were frozen. If Japan goes to war with China, both its military and economy will fall into a quagmire. Moreover, the weapons sold to Japan by the U.S. are never cheap and come with various political strings attached. The more Japan buys, the more it is tied to the U.S. war machine, ultimately becoming a puppet.

Meanwhile, Russia is taking advantage of Japan’s distraction to steadily strengthen its control over the Northern Territories. Leaders regularly visit, deploy advanced weapons, and upgrade military facilities—each step solidifies the de facto control. By the time Japan finishes fighting and regains clarity, the Northern Territories will already be an inseparable part of Russia’s territory, making any claims seem even more distant.

In short, this potential China-Japan confrontation is essentially a strategic opportunity for Russia and the U.S.—Russia to resolve long-standing territorial issues, and the U.S. to profit immensely from arms sales. Japan is merely a carefully crafted pawn, likely to end up empty-handed in the end.