## Why Can't the Bubble in This Bull Market Inflate? Understanding the Essence Through Three Cycles

Some say the bull market has already ended, but those who understand the historical rhythm will tell you— the truly fierce market has yet to come. The key lies in one word: **money**.

### Same Bull Market, Why Is the Market Cap Growth Diminishing

By comparing the total market value of cryptocurrencies at each peak of Bitcoin, a clear trend emerges: the growth multiples are decreasing. This is not a sign of industry maturity but a signal of insufficient liquidity supply.

In 2017, Bitcoin surged from about $1,000 to nearly $20,000, with the total Crypto market cap reaching around $600 billion. At that time, without the boost of central bank QE, the market was entirely driven by media hype and FOMO, coupled with the ICO frenzy that funneled funds into Ethereum and various altcoins. But this retail bubble had a fundamental weakness—lack of sustained capital inflow. By 2021, Bitcoin had reached a high of $69,000. This cycle was different; the Federal Reserve launched unlimited QE after the pandemic, cutting interest rates to near zero and injecting about four trillion dollars into the market. Ample liquidity, large institutional investments, and the grand narrative of "the future of digital currencies" created that spectacular rally.

By 2025, the situation changed. Although the market still calls it a bull market, the Fed had shifted from aggressive easing to gradually tightening liquidity. This explains why the growth of the total Crypto market cap has been relatively moderate—hot money has not fully entered yet. Currently, BTC is quoted at $87.71K, still below its all-time high of $126.08K, and the market's bubble-blowing capacity is noticeably weaker than before.

### Why Can't We See a Clear Bubble Boom This Year

The essence of a bull market is to create a bubble; the later stages should be more exaggerated. But looking at the 2025 market, it is characterized by repeated oscillations rather than a one-sided surge. This is not a technical issue but a constraint on capital.

Under tight liquidity, the market can only sustain sentiment through localized hotspots—if one sector heats up, funds are immediately pulled from another. This "robbing Peter to pay Paul" pattern makes it difficult to blow a large bubble like the one in 2021, which resembled a square dance frenzy. After short-term excitement, funds quickly cash out and exit. The result is what you see: most of the time, the Crypto market is tugging back and forth rather than experiencing one-directional madness.

### Liquidity Is the Ultimate Indicator for Bull and Bear Markets

Rather than relying on various technical or fundamental analyses, it’s better to focus on one truth: **Is there a continuous inflow of hot money?** Without new liquidity injections, bubbles cannot grow large. Conversely, once a genuine easing cycle arrives (such as a new, larger-scale QE), the market will be instantly reactivated.

Currently, the bull market is far from over, and the possibility remains high. But if it suddenly turns into a nightmare scenario, the solution is simple and straightforward: hold BTC as the core asset, transfer to hardware wallets to avoid exchange risks; participate in yield farming with stablecoins on large protocols to accumulate off-chain income. The rest is patience—each market cycle takes about four years to complete.

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**Remember: Don’t get distracted by flashy stories. Focus on when liquidity truly flows in—that’s the only reality. Everything else is an illusion.**