After the release of the latest US non-farm payroll data, market reactions have been polarized. The entire X community is discussing the implications of these figures for the economy and asset prices, with opinions varying significantly.

Optimists see this as a sign of economic recovery. They point out that strong private sector employment expansion indicates huge growth potential for 2026, especially with new opportunities brought by AI and space economy transformation. The government shutdown, on the other hand, is seen as helping to streamline bloated sectors, and these people are quite optimistic about the economic outlook for next year.

Pessimists focus on the unemployment rate and employment structure. They worry about a decrease in full-time jobs and an increase in part-time positions; the apparent rise in total jobs actually masks weak improvements in people's livelihoods. Coupled with the lingering 9.1% high inflation from the Biden era, short-term pain is inevitable. There are also many doubts pointing out that large corporations are clearly laying off workers, which conflicts with official data.

Crypto and stock market participants are the most sensitive to the news. Bitcoin has fallen 27% from its high, and although it faces short-term pressure, some see this as a positive buying opportunity. Gold is viewed as an important hedge against the Federal Reserve's policy mistakes. The market's expectation of a rate cut by the Fed in December has sharply dropped from nearly 100% to between 33-40%, with hawkish tones beginning to dominate the scene.

Interestingly, even those supporting rate cuts have to admit that rising unemployment actually supports the need for easing policies. Overall discussions remain relatively rational and have not descended into extreme panic.

From the data itself, the better-than-expected performance indicates that the US economy's foundation remains solid. The private sector can still expand in a high-interest environment, which is indeed noteworthy. This aligns with the current government's policies of increasing oil production and deregulation, potentially accelerating the shift from high inflation to sustainable growth. The short-term rise in unemployment is just a cost of the transition; historically, similar situations after 2021 have often been followed by strong rebounds.

However, risks cannot be ignored. The aftermath of the government shutdown could amplify subsequent data volatility. If the Fed pauses rate cuts in December due to so-called "hawkish panic," stock and crypto markets could further adjust—Nasdaq has already shown significant volatility. In the long term, emerging industries like AI will create more high-quality jobs, and the economic outlook for 2026 is indeed worth looking forward to. But investors should remain cautious, continuously monitor Fed meeting developments, and watch for subsequent data revisions, as these are key variables influencing asset prices.