MET and MMT face a prolonged correction: alarming technical analysis and psychological traps

A Completely Deteriorated Technical Structure

The chart analysis reveals a critical situation: successive breakages on the daily, weekly, and monthly scales indicate a deep structural weakness. The four-year cycle, which usually serves as a solid reference, also shows signs of advanced deterioration. BTC, which plunged below 100,000 during this bearish wave, has yet to generate a convincing rebound. This inability to recover is one of the most concerning markers: a rebound as weak as a sack of sand generally signals the beginning of a true bear market.

The Funding Rate Enigma: a Worrying Anomaly

Despite the growing panic environment, the perpetual funding rates for BTC and ETH remain positive. This paradox suggests that the speculative bubble has not yet been fully deflated from the market, and buyers still dominate significantly. Under these conditions, systemic risks continue to silently accumulate, like underground pressure before an earthquake.

Geopolitical Context and Liquidity Withdrawal

The macroeconomic environment heightens concerns. Tensions between the United States and Venezuela could, in case of escalation, trigger a massive withdrawal of capital from high-risk markets. Meanwhile, the fund outflows observed since October 11 create a weekly deterioration in liquidity. New investors stay on the sidelines while old capital gradually exits positions.

The Most Dangerous Signal: the Chorus of “Buying Opportunities”

What should truly alert market participants is the growing consensus on social media proclaiming a “historic buying opportunity.” Historically, true bear market peaks exhibit three distinct characteristics: lack of public debate, absence of aggressive buyers, and complete exhaustion of perpetual volume. Yet, the current situation presents exactly the opposite on all points.

Behavioral Analysis: the Paradox of Frustration

The market is currently oscillating between two antithetic fears: the fear of getting stuck buying at the bottom, and the fear of missing the chance to short-sell. This widespread frustration creates a collective psychological paralysis. Although this apparent chaos is destabilizing, it imposes discipline: only patience can prove profitable in these conditions.

Recommended Strategies for MET, MMT, and the Entire Market

In the face of this unstable liquidity, any leveraged operation exposes itself to catastrophic risk during a single violent black candle. Two approaches will be recommended:

First approach: passive observation. Doing nothing is often the best strategy.

Second approach: small positions. Testing the market with limited amounts on spot allows for gradual accumulation without overexposure.

Conclusion: as long as the trend has not reversed

In the short term, there are no fundamentals capable of reversing the bearish dynamic. Capital flow data, decreasing liquidity levels, and the absence of positive catalysts reinforce this outlook. As long as statements of “buy the dip” maintain their media dominance, true lows remain distant. Impatience remains the main enemy of participants. Staying attentive rather than acting remains the most robust strategy to navigate this hostile environment.