Will the Cancun upgrade be implemented again? Will Ethereum repeat the "upgrade curse"?

Ethereum Dencun Upgrade (Kunlun Upgrade Time: March 13, 2024, 21:55) has officially been deployed on the mainnet. But whether the upgrade will lead to a general rise or follow the “rise first, then fall curse,” the community has been debating — there is actually no standard answer to this question.

Chaotic Signals from Past Upgrades

Looking back at ETH’s upgrade history reveals that price performance has been quite “capricious.”

The Byzantium, Constantinople, and Berlin upgrades all experienced a brief rise followed by a quick pullback — during the early stages of the upgrade, there was consensus and expectations supporting the price, but after the upgrade was completed, the price plunged. The Shanghai upgrade was even more direct, with the price dropping by 400 points in just one month.

Conversely, there are cases that “break the curse.” After the Muir Glacier upgrade, the price remained calm; after the London upgrade in August 2021, ETH even entered a sustained upward trend.

What does this indicate? The upgrade itself is not the decisive factor for price.

Key Variables for the Kunlun Upgrade

Market Expectation Absorption: If the market has already “absorbed” the positive effects of the Dencun upgrade, there may be a lack of new upward momentum after the launch. Conversely, if the market holds new expectations for the transformative aspects of the upgrade, it may maintain upward momentum before and after the launch.

Macro Sentiment: A stable global economic environment and a positive crypto market atmosphere are conducive to Ethereum maintaining or increasing its value; on the other hand, if the market falls into uncertainty or bearish expectations, the positive effects of the upgrade may be suppressed.

Technical Realization Capability: If the Dencun upgrade significantly reduces Layer 2 costs and improves performance as expected, it will enhance Ethereum’s value in the long term. However, short-term prices may not react immediately. If the upgrade process exposes major vulnerabilities or technical issues, it could trigger selling pressure.

Summary

Rather than predicting whether the upgrade will lead to a rise or fall, it’s better to focus on the market’s expectations before the upgrade, the overall industry sentiment, and whether the technical improvements can be realized as scheduled. History has shown that technological upgrades are often a “expectation game” rather than a “certain rise” — the higher the expectations, the greater the risk of disappointment; moderate expectations tend to lead to more surprises. The Kunlun upgrade is no exception.