1. Market Overview Based on the provided ETH 14-day and 48-hour K-line data, the current ETH price is 2834.94 USDT, clearly referenced from the latest daily closing price. The recent market performance shows a clear downward trend, with prices continuously declining from the high of 3447.44 USDT (14-day high) two weeks ago. The recent adjustment mainly concentrated over the past 4 days, with significant single-day declines, the largest daily volume reaching 761,680 (on the day it broke below 3000 USDT). Selling pressure at high levels has become evident, and market sentiment is becoming cautious. The 48-hour hourly chart shows that in recent hours, the price has been oscillating slightly within the 2810-2860 USDT range, mostly in a weak consolidation phase. Regarding volume, large amounts accumulated during the breakdown below 3000 USDT and subsequent recovery, indicating active trading during the downtrend. However, subsequent volume has contracted, and the market is increasingly in a wait-and-see mood. Combining news and analyst opinions, the overall market currently lacks confidence in a rebound, with a dominant atmosphere of caution and observation.

2. Technical Analysis From the 14-day daily data, ETH has experienced a rapid decline from its high, undergoing three major downward waves: first from 3447.44 down to 3063.5, second after failing to consolidate above 3063.5 and breaking below 3000, and third continuing the decline towards the 2800 level. The current hourly K-line shows repeated consolidation in the 2820-2850 USDT range, with short-term difficulty breaking through the 2850 USDT resistance, and multiple supports below 2820 USDT. The key support area has shifted down to 2791.02 USDT (the lowest point within 14 days); the primary short-term resistance is 2864.29 USDT (the recent 48-hour high), followed by 2904.65 USDT. Volume-wise, both hourly and daily charts show increased activity during the breakdown below 3000 USDT and 2800 USDT, with high turnover at higher levels, but current volume has contracted, showing no signs of major institutional funds entering against the trend. Overall, the trend presents a typical weak oscillation pattern. Without new capital inflows, downside risks remain significant.

3. News and Policy Interpretation Several news reports focus on ETH’s continued decline and market confidence issues, such as “Due to the cryptocurrency market’s failure to recover today, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP prices fell,” “Ethereum’s outlook depends on whale movements: will it break below 2,800 USD or recover above 3,000 USD,” and “ETH ETF experienced net outflows for the fourth consecutive day, with Ethereum price breaking below 3,000 USD,” all indicating a cautious attitude toward ETH’s recent rebound. Market data also confirms this—after losing the 3,000 USDT level, the market quickly shrank without a rebound. Additionally, news about institutions like “JPMorgan launching a $100 million ETH fund, but the market remains skeptical” indirectly shows that mainstream funds have not yet entered to support the market. The latest reports mention a large whale slightly liquidating long positions, but overall holdings remain substantial, with limited short-term impact. On the policy front, no new regulations have been introduced, and the policy environment remains neutral, with no significant positive or negative signals.

4. Analyst Opinions Summary According to analyst views, “#ETH和#BTC two options, just choose one, with no more than 3% of funds,” indicating a strong emphasis on risk control and suggesting the current market is not suitable for heavy positions. Another analyst explicitly recommends “#ETH埋伏空单进场：3066-3090止盈：2960-2870止损：3155夜间不能盯盘挂单仓位小一点”，对应盘面显示，当前价格已落入止盈范围，在2870-2960 USDT forming a main profit zone within the range, emphasizing small position operations with limited aggressive intent.” Additionally, an analyst states “ETH yield is 128%,” but without specific entry times or levels, this is a retrospective figure and cannot be directly linked to recent operations. Some analysts suggest high selling in the 2825-3165 USDT range, with stop-loss at 3230, especially when prices are already well below entry points, indicating heightened alertness to downside risks. Overall, analysts tend to adopt a conservative approach, favoring light short-term positions, emphasizing stop-losses and phased strategies.

5. Market Trend Forecast and Trading Recommendations Based on K-line data, ETH is currently in a weak sideways consolidation phase, with the core support at 2791 USDT. If this support fails, further downside could open, potentially testing lower levels. The first resistance zone for rebounds is between 2860-2905 USDT; if volume does not increase to break through, the short-term outlook remains weak. Investors are advised to adopt a defensive stance, avoiding blind long positions. If the price breaks below 2791 USDT, strict stop-losses should be applied. Aggressive traders may follow analyst suggestions to short at highs within the 2860-2900 USDT range, with stop-loss above 2940, targeting the 2810-2790 zone. Conservative investors should wait and see, only acting upon volume breakthroughs or new highs. Position sizes should be controlled within 3% of total funds, prioritizing risk management, following the range oscillation, and strictly setting stop-losses.

6. Risk Warning According to K-line data, ETH has experienced recent high volatility, with maximum declines exceeding 14% accompanied by large volumes, indicating significant short-term withdrawal by major funds. If volume increases again during consolidation and a further decline occurs, a new rapid downward move could be triggered. Maintaining the 2791 USDT support is crucial; once broken, a sharp decline risk is high. The absence of volume during rebounds and sideways consolidation also suggests a low probability of short-term reversal, and blindly chasing rebounds carries high risk. Analysts unanimously recommend position control and stop-loss measures—small positions, setting stops, and careful allocation—to prevent severe losses from market swings. Investors should be alert to sudden risks, avoid chasing highs, and be cautious. Overall, ETH faces strong short-term pressure, with both technical and sentiment indicators lacking a solid foundation for a reversal. Operations should focus on risk prevention and reducing positions on rallies, closely monitoring the 2791 USDT support, setting strict stop-losses, and maintaining a prudent investment approach.