#非农数据超预期

After the non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, why did the market become more rational?

Many people think that a non-farm payrolls report that surpasses expectations must be a major negative, but this time the market reaction was noticeably more restrained.

The reason is simple: strong employment has already been partially priced in. Continuous strong economic data in the early stages has prepared the market psychologically for “interest rate cuts not coming too soon.” Non-farm payrolls are just a confirmation, not an surprise. What truly matters is—against the backdrop of hawkish interest rate expectations, risk assets did not experience a systemic sell-off, indicating that the bulls have not collapsed. Under this structure, what is more likely to occur is “oscillating digestion,” rather than a trend reversal.

For traders, the days following the non-farm payrolls are actually a window to observe the main force’s attitude: if the decline shrinks in volume and the rebound is supported, it indicates that funds are still present; if volume increases and breaks below key levels, then true defense is needed.