【Warning Signal】BTC, ETH, BNB Face Macroeconomic Dilemma: Japan's Carry Trade Collapse Sparks Global Liquidity Crisis

People are still debating whether to buy the dip, but they haven't realized that a global financial earthquake is brewing. The core engine that has supported US stocks, US bonds, and the entire crypto market for the past thirty years—the Japanese carry trade—is now disintegrating.

**The Overlooked Financial Foundation**

Many believe that the US printing press is the main driver behind rising asset prices, but they are unaware of a colossal underlying factor: Japan's long-standing zero interest rate policy. This has given rise to a carry trade chain worth trillions—borrowing cheap yen, exchanging for dollars, and then investing in global stocks, bonds, real estate, and even cryptocurrencies. It’s an invisible faucet continuously injecting liquidity into the world.

Whether in traditional finance or the meme and altcoin markets, everyone has benefited from this cheap funding. This convenience is like a free lunch—everyone enjoys it, but no one truly considers the cost.

**The Turning Point Has Arrived**

By the end of 2024, Japan’s long-term government bond yields began to rise sharply—20-year yields approaching 2.8%, and 40-year yields even spiking to 3.7%. This is not a gentle policy adjustment but a burst of financial pressure that has been suppressed for thirty years, now released explosively.

The cost of borrowing yen has suddenly increased, exchange rate volatility has become intense, and previously stable carry trade positions are becoming unstable. Trillions of capital are flowing back in reverse to Japan.

**Chain Reaction Has Started**

What happens when the carry trade collapses?

First, borrowing becomes expensive. Positions supported by leverage start incurring losses and are forced to liquidate. Second, exchange rate fluctuations alone can trigger many leveraged positions. Third, global liquidity suddenly dries up—where will this capital flowing out of Japan withdraw from? No one knows, but high-risk assets like BTC, ETH, and BNB are often the first to be affected.

Even meme-themed cryptocurrencies rely on this global liquidity feast for nourishment. When the faucet closes, they face the greatest risks.

**The Harsh Reality**

The recent pump-and-dump in the crypto world may seem tumultuous, but in the face of this macro tsunami, it’s just a drop in the bucket. The world once viewed Japan as a declining financial zombie, but now it has truly awakened—not in a revivalist manner, but by reclaiming liquidity.

The former "ultimate blood bag" has now become a "liquidity vacuum cleaner." When capital flows back to Japan, the entire global market will feel the chill.

Buy-the-dip enthusiasts are still counting coins, but they haven't seen the ladder being pulled away.