## ETH oscillates near $3,000: when market scarcity redraws Ethereum's future

While Ether has been trading around $3,000 with contrasting volatility in recent days, an underlying dynamic could be at play. At the current price of 2.93K with a 1.35% pullback over 24 hours and a weekly correction of 9.62%, the market appears frozen. However, on-chain data reveal a very different story from the nominal prices.

### The scarcity effect: when supply becomes the dominant narrative

The most striking phenomenon is not the price movement but its relative absence amid extreme structural conditions. Only 8.8% of ETH is currently circulating on centralized exchanges—an unprecedented level since 2015. This contraction represents a radical thinning of available order books, with 43% of the total supply locked between staking, DeFi, restaking, and long-term wallets.

This tightening is not accidental. It mirrors conditions that preceded Ethereum's surge in 2021, when increasing buying pressure met limited liquidity, propelling prices by +300%. Observers note that this same chronic supply shortage scenario could once again serve as a catalyst.

### Fusaka: the upgrade that redefines scalability

The Fusaka upgrade, activated on December 3, brings a major technological dimension to this fragile balance. The introduction of PeerDAS octuples data availability for layer 2 networks, simultaneously reducing node storage costs and transaction fees. Early on-chain indicators suggest a rising activity already visible.

History shows an interesting pattern: previous upgrades like Dencun in 2024 preceded robust bullish cycles, coinciding with network efficiency gains. The projected trajectory for 2026—aiming for over 12,000 transactions per second—could redefine Ethereum’s competitiveness against Layer 1 alternatives.

### Whales, liquidity, and the critical friction zone

Activity from large wallets paints a nuanced picture. A major trader has established a long position of 20,000 ETH at $3,040 with a liquidation threshold at $1,190, signaling aggressive conviction. Meanwhile, another whale has realized $164,000 in losses on 7,925 ETH, illustrating sentiment divergence.

High leverage in derivatives markets—$264 million in liquidations over 24 hours across all cryptocurrencies—intensifies sensitivity around technical levels. The $3,036–$3,020 zone becomes critical: a pullback below $3,020, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci level, could trigger cascading liquidations. Conversely, sustained stability above maintains the bullish scenario into Q1 2026.

### Hidden signals beneath the surface: when volume masks strength

The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator recently broke its resistance, seemingly contradicting the price decline. This divergence—low prices, high buying volume—is traditionally interpreted as a precursor signal. Analysts note that OBV remains "one of the most reliable leading indicators," suggesting underlying accumulation that could support higher levels before a more structural correction.

### Institutional flows: ETFs retreat, companies accumulate

The market shows divided consensus. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $75.2 million in outflows, extending a monthly withdrawal of $1.4 billion in November. Simultaneously, smart money traders affiliated with Nansen maintain a net short position of $21 million, adding $2.8 million in short positions yesterday.

Contrasting this movement, companies are actively accumulating. BitMine, the largest ETH holder in corporate wallets, increased its position by $199 million in just two days and now controls 3.08% of the total supply. This accumulation over the past month—$2.13 billion—appears remarkable amid a general slowdown in crypto cash flows.

### Technical setup: compression before directional move

Ethereum is trading near its short-term averages while remaining below major averages: the 100 EMA at $3,528 and the 200 SMA at $3,540.5. This consolidation pattern—rather than clear directional strength—often precedes significant breakouts once catalysts crystallize.

### The crossroads: what are the key issues this week?

**Factors supporting a bullish scenario:**
- Unprecedented exchange supply contraction, tightening market balances
- Tangible scalability gains from Fusaka
- Corporate accumulation despite weak ETF flows
- Positive divergence in underlying buying volume

**Potential risks:**
- Persistent ETF outflows and smart money short positions
- High leverage exposure in derivatives amplifying volatility
- Extreme sensitivity to Fibonacci levels at $3,020

Holding above $3,020 this week would reinforce the medium-term bullish narrative. A breakdown below could accelerate broader deleveraging, reshaping the dynamics for the coming weeks.