Policy favorable signals ignite the market? Can Ethereum break through the 3800 level—analysts provide in-depth analysis

Policy Favorable Release Market Benefits

The U.S. Senate recently passed a bill to end the government shutdown, an important development that immediately stirred market volatility. The government reopening means significantly reduced market uncertainty, and institutional and retail funds are beginning to reallocate risk assets. Historical data shows that whenever the government shutdown crisis is resolved, both the stock market and cryptocurrency market usually experience a rebound. Currently, Ethereum (ETH) may benefit from this policy dividend, with a breakout imminent.

Technical Indicators Show Positive Signals

Ethereum is currently consolidating in the $3600-$3620 range. On the 1-hour candlestick chart, notable technical features include:

• The MACD indicator has formed a golden cross above the zero line, a classic bullish signal
• Trading volume bars are continuously increasing, indicating that bullish momentum is quietly building
• The current price repeatedly tests the previous high near $3660. A successful breakout above this level could open up greater upward space

It is particularly important to note that the RSI indicator is approaching the overbought zone, suggesting a short-term technical correction may occur. The key support level is at $3550. As long as this level holds, the upward trend will not reverse.

Future Market Forecast and Risk Assessment

From both policy and technical perspectives, Ethereum has a real possibility of breaking higher, but rational analysis is necessary:

• The policy benefits have just begun to take effect, and funds are expected to gradually enter to replenish positions
• The technical pattern shows a bullish arrangement, with trend momentum pointing upward
• Main force orders around $3617 indicate strong support

However, caution is advised as major funds may first conduct a shakeout before initiating a rally. If the price retraces to the $3550-$3580 range, this could be the best entry point rather than a stop-loss signal.

Retail Trading Framework and Risk Tips

For individual investors, the following operational ideas are recommended:

• When the price retraces to $3550-$3580, consider gradually building small positions
• If the price directly breaks above $3660, use a light position to chase the rally
• Set stop-loss below $3520, with initial targets at $3760-$3800

Final Warning: Never operate with full positions; strictly control the size of each trade. Although current market opportunities outweigh risks, any trend can reverse. Major positive events like the end of a government shutdown are rare, so capturing the rhythm is crucial, but the safety margin should not be overlooked. Short-term volatility is inevitable; maintaining patience and holding positions is the right approach.

Data Reference: Ethereum is currently around $2930, with the latest 1-hour change approximately -0.79%.