The non-farm payroll report is difficult to interpret, and tonight is destined to be a sleepless night! 12.16 Bitcoin Auntie's Strategy

Tonight's non-farm report will include some data from October and complete data from November. The October unemployment rate will never be published. Due to the forced layoffs during the record 43-day government shutdown, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to collect all the necessary data during the survey. During the shutdown, hundreds of thousands of federal employees were also unemployed, which could distort the data results. Therefore, tonight's data may be a distorted figure and hard to interpret!

If the labor market in October and November appears to have sharply declined, and Wall Street recognizes the Federal Reserve's rate cut measures, investors might expect several more rate cuts by 2026. On the other hand, given the few other data points showing improvement in the labor market, if private sector employment growth exceeds expectations, the market may remain skeptical. Perhaps the only situation that could worry investors is a sign of a labor market collapse—though currently, almost no one predicts such an outcome.

Cryptocurrency prices continued to decline again in the early morning, with Bitcoin falling below 86,000 and Ethereum dropping below 2,900. However, during the daytime today, prices pulled back a bit. If the non-farm data is positive tonight, prices may rise again, but if the data is negative, it’s hard to say. So, tonight’s focus is on the data performance! Currently, the bottoming and rebounding trend suggests a potential long position!

12.16 Evening Long Strategy:

Bitcoin retraced to 86,000-86,500, go long, conservative traders can enter at 85,000-85,500, with a stop around 84,000. Targets are around 87,500-88,000-89,000. If broken, look for 90,000-91,000-92,000, and move stop-loss accordingly to lock in profits!

Ethereum retraced to 2,900-2,930, go long, conservative traders can enter at 2,830-2,860, with a stop around 2,800. Targets are around 3,000-3,050. If broken, look for 3,100-3,150-3,180, and move stop-loss accordingly to lock in profits!

12.16 Evening Short Strategy:

Bitcoin rebounded to 91,000-91,500, short one position, with a stop around 92,500. Targets are around 90,000-89,500-88,500, and if broken, look for 88,000-87,000-86,500, moving stop-loss accordingly to lock in profits!

Ethereum rebounded to 3,150-3,180, short one position, with a stop around 3,230. Targets are around 3,100-3,050-2,930, and if broken, move stop-loss accordingly to lock in profits!

Interest rates have been cut, and there are no recent positive catalysts, but also no significant negative news. So, don’t blindly be bearish. Tonight’s data should bring some good market movements—whether it exceeds expectations or falls short will be the key!#市场触底了吗？