#加密生态动态追踪 Look at the data calmly, don't be driven by emotions.

**Technical analysis straightforward:** BTC on the 1-hour chart is firmly pressed below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, and the bandwidth is expanding — a typical sign of a downward continuation. On the MACD side, although the DIF and DEA haven't yet dipped into the negative zone, the histogram bars are already expanding below the zero line, indicating bearish momentum is building. Don't trust the 86200 level; it's not support, just a brief buffer during the decline.

**On-chain stories hit harder:** In the past 24 hours, exchange net inflows have increased, especially with frequent transfers from large wallets. But this isn't a sign of bottoming — quite the opposite, it often indicates some large funds are exiting during the rebound or positioning for short positions. The growth rate of HODL wallets is slowing down, and the momentum of new large buy orders is severely lacking. The market lacks fresh capital injection.

**News and macro environment:** Currently, there are no catalysts for new capital inflows, and traditional financial sentiment remains cautious and conservative. Aside from some fragmented narratives within the community, there are no major events to change the situation for now. In a liquidity-tight market environment, technical discourse will be amplified infinitely.

In this situation, my straightforward judgment is: any short-term rebound is just a test of selling pressure, not a reversal. Maintain a bearish outlook, with the first key level at 85100 (Bollinger lower band + previous structural support). Once broken, the space will continue to open up.

Trading advice: **Don't try to catch falling knives before the trend reverses, position management always comes first.** The market will prove everything with price action.