Tonight at 21:30 Beijing time, the United States will release the non-farm payroll data, which this time combines data for October and November due to delays caused by interruptions in previous surveys. There are several reasons to be bullish at the moment.

The labor market has already shown clear signs of cooling. In September, only 119K jobs were added, and in August, it was as low as 22K, with two consecutive months of downward revisions, reflecting a genuine slowdown in economic momentum. The market now generally expects November's job gains to be around 40-50K, with the unemployment rate holding steady or slightly rising to 4.3%, and hourly wage growth expected to fall below 3.8%.

The key point is that if the actual data significantly underperform expectations—for example, job gains less than 30K, or the unemployment rate rises again—it will reinforce signals of an economic recession. Once the signals become clear, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates will increase, with the market currently implying a potential cut of 75-100 basis points by 2026. Once expectations of easing liquidity heat up, high-beta assets like BTC and ETH can see a noticeable boost.

From a price perspective, BTC may quickly retest the resistance level of $90,000. ETH, being more sensitive to ecosystem narratives, could see a sharper rise, potentially reaching the $3,200 range. Short-term risk appetite recovery will drive a rebound.

However, the downside also needs to be considered. If the data exceeds expectations significantly—for example, job gains over 100K, or wages accelerating further—then the possibility of rate cuts will be shattered. The dollar index will rebound, US Treasury yields will rise, and risk assets will face systemic selling pressure. Currently, BTC has already broken below the $86,000 support, and ETH has also fallen below $3,000. The market fear index has dropped to 11, indicating extreme fear, and leveraged positions have been partially liquidated.

If truly negative news materializes, BTC could further decline to the trend support of $80,000-$82,000, and ETH may test the lows around $2,700, which could trigger a chain of stop-losses.

Overall, the crypto market has already priced in this uncertainty premium in advance, with implied volatility clearly rising. The short-term trend heavily depends on how much the data deviates from expectations. It is recommended to closely monitor the reaction of BTC and ETH prices to the US dollar index and the 10-year US Treasury yield within the first 30 minutes after the release.

From a medium-term perspective, the trend of slowing in the labor market remains a strategic support for crypto assets, but tonight’s data could become a watershed for recent market movements and warrants close attention.