The recent rebound of COAI, which has been trapped for several months, is it really about to start or just another trap of harvesting profits? I have a different opinion.

First, let's look at the position structure. Currently, the top ten addresses hold 94%, which sounds normal, but if you follow the long-term changes in this coin's holdings like I do, you'll know that a month ago, this number was 95%. The whales are nominally reducing their holdings, but in reality? They periodically pump the price to create the illusion of a "big surge," making retail investors think it's about to skyrocket, only to trap them into buying high or taking over their positions. This trick has been played several times already, and after three times, I’m laughing at this routine.

Next, look at the performance of the older coin MYX, which is similar in type. Before COAI started its move, MYX didn’t rise much either—in fact, it initially surged and then dumped, a combo that frustrated everyone. For COAI to truly kick off, we need to see if MYX can set an example.

The most critical factor is the overall market trend. Altcoins surge in a bear market only for one purpose: to prepare for a bull market by dumping at good prices or bottoming out mainstream coins. So COAI will continue to rise, but the gains will be limited; it’s impossible to reach previous highs. When the big trend truly turns positive, these kinds of coins might actually crash and be dumped. When will the big trend turn positive? If I knew, I would have already gone all-in; why bother analyzing here?

Following this logic, the next movement of COAI and MYX will likely be: a slow rise to attract late buyers, then sideways trading at certain levels, with funding rates remaining positive, lasting until the big trend improves, then a sharp drop to new lows. During this process, there will be three such cycles—by then, most bottom long positions will either take small profits or be liquidated, and only then will the whales truly push up the price. Why go through all this trouble instead of launching new coins directly?