There is no fixed answer to Ethereum's reasonable market value, as valuations fluctuate dynamically based on factors such as technological upgrades, ecosystem development, and macroeconomic conditions. Different valuation models and research perspectives yield vastly different results. As of December 16, 2025, its real-time market cap is approximately $379.295 billion, while under various analytical dimensions, the estimated reasonable market value ranges from hundreds of billions to tens of trillions of dollars. Below are analyses of reasonable market value from various mainstream perspectives:

1. **Short-term Multi-model Comprehensive Valuation**
Some platforms use 12 financial and on-chain models to comprehensively estimate Ethereum's intrinsic value. Most models suggest that Ethereum is currently undervalued. For example, a model based on Metcalfe's Law (assessing network value through active users) estimates its market cap at about $1.2 trillion (single token valuation of $9,981.3); a staking cash flow discount model estimates a market cap of about $1.14 trillion (single token valuation of $9,496.9). Conversely, there are opposing views, such as a 25x price-to-sales ratio model estimating a single token value of only $936.1, corresponding to a market cap of about $112.9 billion, indicating it may be overvalued. Combining these models, the platform estimates Ethereum's intrinsic value at approximately $5,084.6, corresponding to a market cap of about $613 billion, about 61% higher than the current market cap. Additionally, CryptoQuant's research shows that the 12 models produce an average composite valuation of approximately $4,836, corresponding to a market cap of about $583.5 billion, 58% higher than the current market cap.

2. **Mid-term Ecosystem-driven Valuation**
Ethereum's lower market cap limit is determined by the total value locked (TVL) in its ecosystem, and ecosystem expansion continues to elevate its valuation. Current trends such as tokenization of US stocks, RWA (real-world assets on-chain), and global stablecoin adoption are continuously expanding its value space. Long-term models estimate that when the stablecoin market in Ethereum reaches $3 trillion and RWA reaches $20 trillion, its minimum market cap could reach the level of $3 trillion. Currently, with the maturity of Layer 2 scaling solutions, transaction costs on Ethereum are decreasing, and applications like DeFi and NFTs continue to attract users and assets. The growing ecosystem supports this valuation target.

3. **Long-term Infrastructure-based Valuation**
If Ethereum can achieve its long-term positioning as a "trustworthy global underlying" and a "global monetary settlement network," its valuation could see a qualitative leap. Analyst William Mougayar's report indicates that, stepping beyond the view of Ethereum as a profit-driven tech company and considering it as a public infrastructure similar to TCP/IP, its current intrinsic value is conservatively estimated near $1 trillion, with an optimistic range of $2 - $6 trillion. Looking further ahead, if by 2035 Ethereum becomes a core global financial infrastructure, its valuation could reach $10 - $20 trillion. The core logic behind this valuation is that Ethereum would then support global asset issuance, circulation, and settlement activities, with its value growing in tandem with the scale of global economic activity.

Additionally, it should be noted that these valuations are not absolute conclusions. Ethereum's market cap will also be influenced by Federal Reserve interest rate policies, global cryptocurrency regulatory attitudes, competition from other public chains, and short-term market sentiment, which can cause significant fluctuations. Therefore, the above reasonable market values are only reference ranges from different perspectives.