1. Market Overview

Based on the 14th and the recent 48-hour K-line data, ETH's current closing price is 2955.50, with recent significant volatility. The 14th-day K-line shows that after reaching a high of 3447.44, the price retreated from the upward range, exhibiting a continuous oscillating downward pattern, with a slight rebound after touching a low of 2894.57. The 48-hour hourly chart further demonstrates intense short-term fluctuations, with the price quickly dropping from a high of 3159.67 to 2955.50. Short-term capital inflows and outflows are frequent, with hourly trading volume fluctuating between 5646.92 and 88432.8, indicating high market activity but increasing bullish-bearish divergence. Regarding market sentiment, some analysts and communities have already indicated a leaning towards bearish. The latest market news also reflects that some large holders have closed ETH long positions and incurred significant losses, which has briefly shaken market confidence.

2. Technical Analysis
Support and resistance levels are clearly defined. According to the 14th-day K-line data, recent resistance levels are mainly at the two highs of 3177.50 and 3447.44, with a short-term resistance focus at 2978.26. Support levels are at 2894.57 and the recent low of 2937.41. The 48-hour hourly chart shows multiple tests of 2940.39, 2937.41, and 2916.67, all of which found some support. Trend analysis indicates that ETH has retreated from short-term highs, especially in the past 48 hours, with ETH rapidly declining from 3159.67 with almost no effective rebound, entering a bearish dominant phase. Volume analysis shows that daily fluctuations within the 14-day period have been large, peaking at 553,670, but have recently decreased with price declines, indicating weakening bullish momentum and a gradual shift to a wait-and-see stance. The volume surge in the past 48 hours also reinforces the downward trend.

3. News and Policy Interpretation
Based on recent news data, the Ethereum ecosystem has seen many positive developments, such as JPMorgan launching an Ethereum-based tokenized money market fund, Ripple's stablecoin expanding to Ethereum Layer 2 networks, and institutional holdings of Bitmine continuing to increase. These news items are beneficial for ETH's long-term ecosystem environment and continue to attract compliant funds and new application scenarios. However, the recent fact that large holders have closed ETH long positions with huge losses aligns with the pessimistic short-term trend on the hourly chart, weakening market sentiment. On the policy front, no new policies have been introduced in the past 24 hours, further indicating that short-term fluctuations are mainly driven by internal market mechanisms and capital sentiment, with limited policy interference.

4. Analyst Opinions
Analyst consensus is generally cautious. Summarized as follows:
- "#ETH EP: 3165 (initial) - 3205 (additional) TP: 3100-3020-2940-2870 SL: 3270"
- "ETH short, cancel it"
- "Contract strategy specific product: ETH directional: short entry points: 3180-3190 stop-loss: 3268 take-profit: 3024 review: ETH short, cancel it"
- "ETH yield 128%" (This yield is related to historical data and not price prediction)
It can be seen that mainstream analysts who initially positioned for short positions have now become cautious or even canceled, with key support levels concentrated around 2940-3020, close to the current price. Additionally, several analysts have indicated take-profit zones and suggested stop-loss above 3270, consistent with the recent 14-day high structure. Their actual predictions align with the K-line reflecting the market trend; after breaking below key support, the bullish-bearish threshold has become more pronounced.

5. Future Trend Prediction and Trading Suggestions
Based on the short- and medium-term K-line trend, ETH's short-term downward momentum shows no substantial easing. Maintaining support at 2940 and 2937 is crucial for the bulls. If these levels are broken, 2850-2870 may become new support zones. If a short-term rebound occurs and stabilizes within 2978-3020, a technical rebound could be initiated, with resistance at 3100 and 3177. A confirmed breakthrough above 3177.50 could signal a return to an upward channel; otherwise, the market remains weak and oscillating with a bearish bias. As for trading strategies, it is currently advisable to stay on the sidelines. Heavy investors should strictly control positions and cut losses below 2940. Light positions can attempt range trading, paying attention to the support at 2940. For rebounds, consider gradually taking profits at higher levels of 3100 and above.

6. Risk Warning
ETH's current price is highly volatile, with short-term upward momentum weak and volume slightly increasing, indicating that downward forces still exist. The past 48 hours have seen consecutive declines, with support levels repeatedly tested and approached. Blindly chasing gains or panic selling may increase losses. Investors should closely monitor the 2955.50—2940 range; a breakdown could open further downside space, while stabilization may offer a short-term recovery opportunity. Be alert to market sentiment swings and the risks of one-sided trading, respond flexibly to range oscillations and extreme short-term shocks, and maintain full risk control. Follow data-driven operational boundaries. Overall, the short-term outlook is bearish, with key support at 2940 and resistance at 3100 and 3177. Strict risk management is essential.