1. Market Overview Based on the provided candlestick data, the current BTC price is 86,139.8, referencing the latest daily closing price. The 14-day candlestick shows that BTC has gradually retreated from a high of 92,215.1 to the current low, with significant fluctuations within the range, with a high of 94,080 and a retracement down to 85,146.6, reflecting rapid downward movements and short-term rebounds alternating within the price range. Overall, the daily average trading volume fluctuates greatly, with peaks mainly occurring on days of large volatility, such as the recent single-day volume reaching 19,341.4, and doubling during intense fluctuations. From the latest 48-hour hourly data, BTC initially showed a weak short-term pattern, with hourly closes decreasing stepwise. After falling below 89,432 and 88,000, the price gradually bottomed at 85,146.6, with no significant rebound, and hourly trading volume did not show notable expansion, indicating strong market hesitation. Market news focuses on BTC breaking important support levels, Federal Reserve chair changes triggering sell-offs, and quantum computing having no immediate industry impact, dominating market sentiment. The mainstream view is that fear and passive responses dominate, with some traders actively withdrawing funds. According to analysts, the overall market remains cautious, shifting from strength to weakness, with risk aversion rising.

2. Technical Analysis Based on 14-day daily data, the high point occurred at 94,080 (corresponding to the high period), and the low was at 85,146.6. Recent support levels are around 85,146.6 and 81,000, both key lows within the declining price range. Resistance levels are at 88,172.2 (intraday rebound high) and 90,472.4 (previous top). Technically, BTC has shown a clear downward trend—moving averages are in a bearish alignment, and there is no significant volume accompanying the pullback, indicating active funds are leaving during the decline. Since the high of 94,261.5, candlestick bodies have gradually increased, with long lower shadows appearing repeatedly, but with limited capital support. Combining hourly charts, BTC has been supported multiple times around 85,146.6, but each rebound has decreasing volume, weaker than the downward momentum, making it difficult to change the weak structure in the short term. Volume-wise, daily volume has erupted several times, with a maximum of over 28,135.9, then quickly falling back, reflecting strong buying support during each decline, but overall selling pressure remains dominant. In hourly charts, during volatile downward periods, hourly volume can reach 3,292.66, while during rebounds, volume cannot be effectively released, and strong support zones see no sustained influx of funds.

3. News and Policy Interpretation On the news front, the Federal Reserve's key personnel changes triggered panic selling in crypto assets, accelerating BTC's decline and increasing risk aversion. MetaMask's support for Bitcoin network and multi-chain ecosystems is seen as a positive signal but has not reversed BTC's current weakness. Headlines such as “BTC breaks $90,000, down 2.43%” and “Key support at $81,000” clearly indicate that short-term losses are the main driver of the current decline. Combining candlestick data, the sharp increase in BTC volume and rapid downward movement coincide highly with the timing of panic news releases, such as large institutional holders liquidating $278 million worth of BTC, with the timing and candlestick upper and lower shadows expanding simultaneously. Additionally, no new policies or regulatory negative news have emerged in the past 24 hours, indicating that current market sentiment is driven mainly by emotions and capital rather than external policy factors.

4. Analyst Opinions Summary The analyst opinions in this report include: “BTC sleeping orders 100x, 3% margin, 86,588, take profit at 91,000, stop loss at 85,000,” “Major support for BTC stop-loss is based on daily close, avoid placing stop-loss orders directly to prevent targeted attacks,” “BTC short positions are protected,” and “BTC real-time price: 87,300.” Some analyst strategies align closely with actual candlestick movements, with stop-loss at 85,000 very close to the current low of 85,146.6, indicating effective professional warning. Several analysts also advise against prematurely placing stop-loss orders to avoid triggering stop hunts during volatility, which is supported by multiple lower shadows in the candlestick data. Some opinions, such as “take profit at 91,000,” have not been realized in the short term, indicating limited rebound strength and the need for further observation. The current price of (87,300 actually corresponds to the previous cycle's high, which has now been broken, confirming the ongoing weakness.

5. Future Trend Prediction and Trading Suggestions Based on the current candlestick situation and market news, BTC remains in a short-term weak pattern. If the price breaks below 85,000, the next support is around 81,000, which has been clearly marked as a stop-loss level by analysts and has been tested twice in the candlestick. If support is lost, further downside risk should be closely monitored. Resistance levels are at 88,172.2 and 90,472.4. If the price retraces to the 85,146.6-86,000 range, traders can consider opportunistic low buys based on volume changes, but stop-loss must be strictly set at 85,000. If rebound volume is weak or rebounds are repeatedly ineffective, a defensive approach is recommended, avoiding chasing highs. Short-term traders should focus on daily closes and the performance of the 85,000-86,000 zone, combined with hourly volume and whether bullish engulfing candles appear to determine position adjustments.

6. Risk Warning Currently, BTC is in a clear downtrend channel with significantly increased volatility, with a maximum amplitude of 15% within 14 days, and hourly declines continuing to expand. If the price effectively breaks below 85,000 and resonates with major fund stop-loss levels, it could trigger further downside pressure, with a high risk of testing the 81,000 zone. During rebounds, if volume cannot sustain above 88,000, further weakening of the trend should be anticipated. Investors must combine actual trading volume and candlestick structures to manage positions and leverage reasonably, strictly implement stop-loss rules, and avoid blind adding or contrarian trading.