Recently, $MERL 's market performance looks quite impressive. It briefly reached $0.45 in a short period and is now hovering around $0.436, with its market cap successfully ranking in the top 100. Many are attracted by this upward momentum and are speculating whether a new wave of explosion is imminent.

However, after carefully examining the relevant data, I have gradually formed a strong negative judgment:

This is very likely a carefully orchestrated pump-and-dump trap, especially during weekends when market liquidity is lower. The major players seem to be intentionally creating an optimistic atmosphere to lure retail investors into buying, so they can smoothly offload their holdings.

Based on a comprehensive assessment, I am thoroughly pessimistic about $MERL 's prospects. The bearish trend has already been established, multiple adverse factors are intertwined, and the room for a rebound is extremely limited.

Let me start by explaining from on-chain dynamics:

Recently, large holders have transferred about 16 million $MERL (worth nearly $8 million) from cold storage to Bybit exchange. The timing of this transfer is just before the unlocking peak, which is quite obvious—likely preparing for selling or risk hedging. Such public actions are equivalent to sending sell signals to the market, easily triggering chain reactions. Other investors seeing this may accelerate their exit, further worsening market sentiment.

Now, looking at supply-side risks:

In December, unlocking events will follow one after another, including on the 12th, 15th, 16th, and 19th, totaling nearly 70 million $MERL . This will cause a sharp increase in circulating supply. Even if off-exchange traders do not immediately sell all their holdings, market expectations will preemptively react—under such dense unlocking pressure, who would be willing to build large positions? Especially those early holders who bought at extremely low costs; now, with the current price bringing substantial gains, they are likely to take profits at the slightest uptick, exerting relentless downward pressure on any potential rally.

Finally, from a technical perspective, this rally has repeatedly failed to break through the $0.45 resistance level, demonstrating the strength of this barrier. Each time it hits a high, it quickly falls back, indicating a shift from previous strength to sideways or downward movement. This forced pump during periods of low liquidity resembles a deliberate attempt to create a false breakout, aiming to attract chasing funds. Once normal trading resumes, the risk of a crash will significantly increase.

Based on the above analysis—capital outflow signals, flood of supply, and technical bottlenecks—the reliability of the sellers' strength far exceeds that of buyers. The price trend is likely to follow the classic path of "pre-hedging → slow decline → panic selling."

Personally, I have now shifted to a bearish stance on $MERL . I recommend considering opening short positions at higher levels to avoid being misled by short-term false rebounds. Short-term shorts can focus on the $0.43 to $0.45 range; once broken, the downward trend will become more certain. This is a warning sign—don't let superficial prosperity mask the underlying risks.

#MERL