Bitcoin's 4-year cycle, now influenced more by politics than halving

Source: DigitalToday Original Title: Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Now Driven by Politics Instead of Halving, According to Tenkx Research Original Link:

The 4-year cycle of Bitcoin still operates, but politics and liquidity are emerging as the key variables rather than the halving.

According to blockchain media, Marcus Thielen, Head of Research at 10x Research, stated that the claim that the 4-year cycle of Bitcoin has been broken is incorrect, explaining that the Bitcoin market still follows a 4-year cycle, but this is more closely related to the U.S. presidential elections, central bank policies, and liquidity flows of risk assets rather than halving events.

In fact, the market peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 all occurred in the fourth quarter, which is more deeply connected to the U.S. election cycle and political uncertainty than to halving events. Thielen emphasized, “If President Donald Trump cannot control the House of Representatives, it will be difficult for him to push through his policies,” highlighting the impact of political uncertainty on the market.

Currently, Bitcoin has not rebounded despite the Federal Reserve(Fed)'s interest rate cuts. While past rate cuts were positive for risk assets, this time the situation is different. Institutional investors are leading the market, but due to liquidity shortages and mixed policy signals, Bitcoin cannot sustain an upward trend. Thielen projected, “Unless liquidity recovers, Bitcoin is likely to remain in a sideways consolidation phase.”

Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, responded to the claim that the 4-year cycle has disappeared, stating, “The Bitcoin market has always been driven by global liquidity, and halving is just a coincidental factor.” He noted that past bullish phases ended when dollar and yuan liquidity shrank, and this market may follow the same pattern.