Next week, two major economic data releases are imminent, and the market faces a critical turning point.

The Non-Farm Payrolls report and CPI data will be released sequentially next week. These indicators directly influence the Federal Reserve's policy direction, and their ripple effects will impact the entire crypto asset market. The subsequent performance of the US Dollar Index, Bitcoin, and Ethereum may be determined within these 48 hours.

Key timing and focus points:
• Tuesday 21:30 Non-Farm Payrolls release — Focus on changes in new employment and unemployment rate, which are core references for the Fed to assess economic overheating or cooling.
• Thursday 21:30 CPI inflation data — The core CPI year-over-year figure directly influences market expectations for rate hikes or cuts, with the broadest impact.

Market reactions under two scenarios:

Scenario 1: Data exceeds expectations (employment increases, high inflation)
The Fed may continue its tightening stance, the US dollar will strengthen, and investors might withdraw from risk assets like BTC and ETH, putting pressure on the crypto market. When inflation data surged in 2022, Bitcoin once plunged over 40%, illustrating the significant influence of macro fundamentals.

Scenario 2: Data falls short of expectations (weak employment, declining inflation)
Expectations for rate cuts will rise, the US dollar may weaken, and funds could flow back into the crypto market. BTC and ETH could rally, leading to a rebound across the sector.

Important details to note:
The actual rise or fall of the data itself is not the key; the market reaction is triggered by deviations beyond expectations. Additionally, there are often contrarian moves where traders take profits after early positioning, and sudden volatility does not necessarily predict future trends. Blindly following the trend can lead to pitfalls.

Practical trading advice:
Macroeconomic data fundamentally act as intangible drivers for the crypto market. This week’s two data releases will largely determine the recent and even end-of-year market rhythm. It is recommended to set alerts in advance, closely monitor release times, and implement proper position management and risk control. In such high-volatility phases, staying alive is the prerequisite to participating in subsequent opportunities.