As almost all major assets are trading within a range, analysts emphasize that the tone of Jerome Powell's speech, rather than the rate cut itself, may determine the market’s next real trend.

In recent days, Bitcoin has fluctuated between $88,000 and $93,000, with liquidity gradually decreasing as the end of the year approaches. Ethereum remains around $3,100, BNB is near $886, and Solana is around $132. During this wait-and-see period, the total crypto market cap has dropped to about $3.1 trillion.

ETF Flows Indicate Rotation Into Altcoins

Despite flat price action, exchange-traded funds reveal a more nuanced picture. Bitcoin ETF products recorded about $60 million in outflows on Monday, while ETH, SOL, and XRP funds attracted a combined net inflow of $74 million.

Market Stays Still Ahead of Fed’s “Binary” Week

Analysts describe market sentiment as a “market waiting to be triggered.” Most traders are staying on the sidelines ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, with the consensus view that a December rate cut is the base case.

Some experts believe the rate cut is fully priced in. However, Powell’s policy guidance will be even more critical—especially whether 2026 policy remains tight or shifts to a more accommodative stance.

They believe Bitcoin is likely to consolidate around $91,000 unless Powell delivers a surprise to the market.

Liquidity Dries Up, Derivatives Traders Exit

QCP Capital pointed out that the sharp weekend volatility—BTC jumping from $88,000 to $92,000 and Ethereum from $2,910 to $3,150—highlights just how thin year-end liquidity has become.

Open interest has dropped significantly:

Bitcoin open interest has fallen more than 44% since October
Ethereum open interest has dropped more than 50%
Retail trader participation has also plunged, with Google search interest returning to bear market lows.

Nevertheless, long-term buyers are quietly absorbing supply. Over the past two weeks, about 25,000 BTC have flowed out of centralized exchanges, and ETF and corporate holdings now exceed spot reserves on exchanges, exacerbating structural supply shortages. However, without a macro catalyst, this steady absorption is not enough to break the price out of the current range.

Powell’s Speech Will Decide Bitcoin’s Next Move

Analysts unanimously agree that tomorrow’s policy guidance will set the tone for the final weeks of 2025’s market. If a more cautious or “hawkish” signal is released, Bitcoin may fall back to the $88,000 area.

If the outlook is more accommodative, or hints at another rate cut in early 2026, prices could push up to $93,000–$95,000, and if momentum returns, even test $97,000–$106,000. At that point, the dominant strategy remains to wait and see.

Market Deadlock—The next move depends entirely on Powell’s statement.