First, my personal judgment—I think we are likely at the early stage of a bear market. If you agree, you can use this as a reference; if not, feel free to skip.

Looking back at the last bull market, the distribution phase lasted about 280 days, from February 2021 all the way to November. How did it play out? In February, the price first reached around $60,000, then consolidated at the top for three months. You all remember the crash on May 19, right? It dropped straight to $28,000. But then the news came out that Tesla had bought Bitcoin, and it took another three months to rebound to the previous high and even broke out a bit. The second time at the top saw another month and a half of sideways trading, and finally, in November, the real bear market began. The entire process took a bit over nine months.

What about this cycle? My assumption is that the distribution period will last from December 2024 through October 2025, about 300 days. Since it's still ongoing, we can't have hindsight; we can only extrapolate based on the information available.

Here's the timeline: last December, the price first touched $100,000, then consolidated at a high level for over two months. This year, the news of the trade war caused a shock, and the price dropped back to $75,000. After the situation eased, it took another three months to rebound to the previous high and break through to $126,000. But what's different this time is that the second consolidation at the top lasted even longer—a full three months. If this pattern holds, a trend-level decline could start in October, extending the entire distribution cycle to 11 months.

Comparing the two, you'll find that the distribution rhythm above $55,000 last cycle is very similar to the current operations above $100,000. In the short term, the actions of the main players may seem random, but over a longer period, the patterns of these big funds are actually quite traceable. Of course, this is just speculation based on historical data—the market will always be full of uncertainties.