There are a few things about this Fed move that seem off, and we need to figure them out to understand where the market is heading next.

First, there’s a huge disagreement internally about rate cuts. The Fed is embroiled in arguments: some think cutting by 50 basis points will stabilize things, while others are more aggressive and want a 75 basis point cut. This level of division is rarely seen in recent years. Investors don’t know which side to bet on, so both bulls and bears are wrestling, and market volatility has spiked.

Second, the smart money has moved early. Data shows $29.4 billion in institutional funds has already entered the market ahead of time. That’s no small sum. Combined with recent liquidity conditions, there’s a good chance we’ll see even larger “liquidity injections” soon. After all, capital always moves faster than the news—it’s clear they’ve sniffed something out.

Third, the Fed held back-to-back closed-door meetings over two days. The repo market has already flashed warnings, and many institutions are urgently adjusting their positions. This kind of intensive activity is usually a precursor to liquidity stress, suggesting some segments of the market are already feeling the squeeze.

Fourth, they made a decision in just one hour. Normally, rate meetings don’t wrap up this fast. This kind of “lightning decision” typically only happens in response to systemic risk. It’s like the Fed is putting out a fire, but we still don’t know exactly where the problem is.

Looking at US stocks, mining and trading-related sectors are up, almost identical to the rhythm before the last rally. Experienced players know this “stock market sets the stage, crypto performs” dynamic isn’t new. Now, with Wall Street money flows so clear, it depends on whether crypto can catch this wave and set off a fire of its own.

Speaking of crypto, a lot of people are saying ETH is going to $10,000. How reliable is that? I’ve looked into it and found three solid factors supporting ETH’s price climb.

First, ETH’s leading position among public chains is very secure. Its ecosystem is growing rapidly—DeFi, NFT, Layer2, all these areas are developing fast. Its staking yields are relatively stable, and the technology keeps iterating and upgrading. All these positives are creating a “resonance effect” that other chains can’t match for now.

Second, the December upgrade is a major move. It’s mainly about on-chain fees; after the upgrade, costs will drop significantly. This will lower the barrier for DApp usage, attracting more users and capital, which is a big benefit for ETH’s demand side.

Third, institutions have already been quietly positioning. Smart money doesn’t usually chase highs. Position data shows many institutions have been accumulating for a while. Now that the market is heating up, they’re likely to wait for the right moment to add more. This kind of institutional consensus is way more reliable than retail FOMO.

But let’s not get too optimistic. The hawk-dove split within the Fed isn’t resolved. If policy suddenly shifts and liquidity tightens, the market could get caught off guard. So ETH’s path to $10,000 certainly won’t be smooth—we need to keep risk in mind at all times.

One last word: this rally is like riding a roller coaster—exciting, sure, but don’t let your emotions steer you. I’ll be watching the charts and policy shifts every day and will update everyone as soon as there’s news. If you think my analysis makes sense, give me a follow. Finding someone reliable to analyze the market with in crypto is way easier than finding a partner. Let’s look for opportunities together in this volatile market—don’t let good chances to make money slip away.

ETH price $ETH