The candlestick on December 3rd is quite crucial—BTC formed a textbook “bullish engulfing” pattern, with a strong green candle completely swallowing the previous day’s red candle. When this pattern appears, it usually means a short-term bottom has been found and a rebound may be coming.

But don’t get too excited just yet. The 4-hour MA250 is still pressing down, and this line is a solid indicator for judging the mid-term trend. When bouncing below the line, you know the drill—it’s unlikely to soar straight up and is more likely to grind higher with some volatility.

How should you operate? For futures traders, consider a contrarian approach—try going long near support levels and short when hitting resistance. For spot holders, just keep holding and don’t get shaken out by short-term fluctuations.

There are two key time points to watch this week: on Tuesday, the US 10-year Treasury auction data will reveal the market’s real expectations for rate cuts; then comes the FOMC meeting, and these two events will directly determine the next market direction.