#美联储降息预期与经济政策 Looking back at history, the Federal Reserve's policy shifts have often marked important turning points in the market. This time, Williams' remarks are undoubtedly a key signal. From past experience, when senior Fed officials send clear policy signals, it often indicates that real action is imminent.

Thinking back to the period of quantitative easing after the 2008 financial crisis, the market also went through a similar process of changing expectations. Today, we seem to be standing at another policy crossroads. The probability of a rate cut in December has soared from 30% to over 67%, reflecting a dramatic shift in market sentiment.

However, we must also be wary of the risks of overinterpreting a single signal. History tells us that economic and policy cycles are often more complex than we imagine. Just like at the end of 2018, when the market widely expected more rate hikes in 2019, but instead, we saw the start of a rate-cutting cycle.

Therefore, although expectations for a rate cut are heating up, we still need to closely monitor subsequent economic data and policy statements. After all, as Williams said, future policy adjustments will still depend on the economic outlook. For those of us who have experienced multiple cycles, maintaining caution and flexibility is the key to success.