90% chance BTC will decline after the Fed cuts interest rates – and here’s why

Everyone should really stay calm — don’t use high leverage, and don’t expect too much. The greater the expectation, the deeper the disappointment. The whole market is shouting “pump after the Fed rate cut,” but the current setup doesn’t support that at all.

Interest rates have already been almost fully priced in by the market, leverage is stretched tight like a guitar string, and ETFs are seeing continuous outflows. When most traders have already longed before the event… where will the new buyers come from to push the price up?

No surprise = no clean pump.

📌 About PCE PCE forecast: Headline: ~2.8% Core: ~2.9% It’s softened a bit, but still very far from the Fed’s 2% target. This is enough for Powell to cut by 25bps, but not enough to open a true pivot cycle. Meaning: rate cuts ≠ bullish market. Because the market has been waiting for exactly this for months.

📌 The most dangerous thing? Powell’s tone. It’s highly likely he’ll say something like: “Data-dependent – step by step – no commitment yet.” Just that kind of cautious tone is enough for: every dream of a pump to immediately vanish. No pivot language → risk assets don’t fly → they… fall.

📌 And don’t forget the political factor There’s a silent battle between Powell and Trump. Trump once said he would replace Powell, wanting a “pro-crypto” person instead. Powell’s term is also coming to an end. Do you think Powell wants to end his term with the image of being “weak, letting the market explode to help Trump”? No. Protecting his legacy is always the priority.

📌 That’s why I say there’s a 90% chance BTC drops — not 100% There’s still a 10% chance if: Powell unexpectedly opens the door for more cuts, or A fierce short squeeze happens. But the base case is still:

👉 Main scenario: Rate cut → Slight price boost → Loses momentum → Sell-the-news → Decline. No new money inflow No positive shock Buyers are exhausted Rate cut without a pivot = not fuel for a bull run

If Powell takes a defensive tone, crypto will bleed. It’s that simple. And think about this… If everyone wins, who loses? The system doesn’t work that way. If everyone is full-long and waiting for a “guaranteed pump”… someone has to pay the bill. Don’t let yourself become their liquidity.