Judging from the current BTC trend and market environment, there is potential bullish momentum in the short term. The core logic can be analyzed from three dimensions: technical, macro, and market structure.

I. Technical: Rebound potential after oversold conditions

1. Support Level Validity
The current price (89,550.2) is within the key support zone of 88,000-90,000 (both the recent rebound starting point and JPMorgan's estimated Bitcoin production cost line). Downside is limited, providing a technical basis for a rebound.

2. Oversold Indicator Signals
On the 4-hour chart, the KDJ indicator (K=30.3, D=31.2) is approaching the oversold region. Coupled with a rising daily RSI from a low level, this suggests that selling pressure has been released for now and there is short-term rebound momentum.

3. Possibility of Breaking Key Resistance
If there is a breakout above the 93,000-94,000 resistance zone (previous high-volume area + 20-day moving average resistance) with strong volume, the next target could be 95,000-100,000.

II. Macro: Liquidity easing expectations as a catalyst

1. Fed Rate Cut Expectations
The probability of a Fed rate cut in December has reached 90%. Rate cuts would bring looser liquidity and a weaker USD, directly benefiting Bitcoin and other high-risk assets. Historical data shows that Bitcoin tends to perform strongly during Fed easing cycles.

2. Structural Demand from Institutional Funds
Traditional financial institutions like Bank of America have opened crypto asset allocation channels. While ETF flows are volatile in the short term, total net inflows remain at $22 billion, and institutions continue to "buy the dip."

III. Market Structure: Potential boost from short liquidations

Currently, there are $3 billion in short positions near $96,000. If the price breaks above resistance, it could trigger large-scale short liquidations, further pushing the price up (similar to the previous rebound from $84,000 to $92,000).

Risk Warnings

• The $88,000 support must hold; a valid break below could see a move down to $84,000-$85,000;
• "Hawkish rate cuts" by the Fed or higher-than-expected inflation data could suppress rebound momentum.