#ETH Intraday Analysis

1️⃣ Structural Interpretation: ETH’s trend is stronger than BTC. The 1-hour reversal point is crucial—holding above it may help form a short-term bottom; if it breaks, expect to see levels near 2800.
2️⃣ Capital Flows & On-chain & Exchange Dynamics Capital Flows: Positive signals are emerging on the capital front. Contrary to BTC ETF outflows, the US spot Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of $140 million on Wednesday (December 4). This suggests that some institutional capital prefers ETH during the decline, or is rotating between sectors. On-chain Data: Technical upgrades provide long-term support. The Fusaka upgrade activated on December 3 improved Layer 2 settlement efficiency and reduced node costs, offering long-term fundamental benefits for the Ethereum network. Exchange Dynamics: ETH is one of the hardest-hit assets by liquidations. In the past 24 hours, ETH liquidations reached $105.53 million, second only to BTC. This indicates similarly high leverage risk in its derivatives market.
3️⃣ Intraday Trading Strategy: Focus on the current and upper resistance zones. Personally, I believe 3210-3260 is a good area to consider shorting ETH. If weakness and lack of upward momentum appear in this range, consider entering with a stop-loss above 3170. Target the 1-hour reversal moving average. If you don’t want to short in this area, wait and observe for long opportunities near the 1-hour reversal point.
4️⃣ Risk Warning: Leader Drag Risk: The crypto market is dominated by BTC. If BTC fails to find support near $90,000 and continues to fall, ETH’s $3,050 support will face enormous pressure and is likely to be breached as well. High Volatility Risk: ETH’s intraday volatility is usually higher than BTC’s. In the current downtrend, this means it may fall deeper and faster, putting position management to the test. “Buy the rumor, sell the news” risk: Although the ETF is seeing inflows and the network upgrade is complete, short-term price is dominated by macro sentiment and leveraged liquidations—bullish factors may not be realized immediately.