12.5 Bitcoin/Ethereum Staged Pullback: Focus on the Strength of the Retest

Bitcoin and Ethereum have both experienced sharp short-term declines followed by rebounds since last night, currently in a key price-level tug-of-war. As mentioned in yesterday’s analysis, the initial support at the 90,500-91,000 and 3,050-3,100 ranges held, leading to a rebound. Here is today’s detailed analysis:

Bitcoin consolidated at the 92,800-94,000 range yesterday. In the evening, it was impacted by the US initial jobless claims data, spiking down to a low of 90,842 before rebounding quickly. It is currently hovering around 92,000. Technically, the key resistance area is at the 93,000-95,000 range; a breakout with volume could see it move toward 100,000. Key support is at the 89,500-90,000 range, with further support at 88,000-88,500. A break below could trigger a deeper pullback. Additionally, Trump’s intention to nominate a crypto-friendly individual as SEC Chair and expectations of Fed rate cuts provide macro support.

Ethereum’s price action is correlated with Bitcoin but with greater volatility. Yesterday, it surged to 3,240 before consolidating, then dropped in tandem to a low of 3,065 before rebounding to 3,190 and pulling back again. On the technical side, the hourly RSI has recovered from oversold to neutral, indicating the oversold condition has been corrected. Key support is at the 3,064 low and 3,100 level, with resistance concentrated in the 3,180-3,220 range. Strong resistance is at yesterday’s high of 3,240. On the fundamentals, the Fusaka upgrade is a positive, and on December 1st, ETH ETFs saw a net inflow of $180 million, with institutional holdings exceeding $13 billion, indicating a clear return of capital and providing price support.

Trading suggestions: Short Bitcoin near 92,100-92,500, targeting 90,500-89,500; short Ethereum near 3,170-3,190, targeting 3,100-3,050, and look for further downside if these levels break.