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The US now has two economies:
Surprises in hard US economic data are now up to +22 points.
Economic surprise measures whether economic data comes in above or below consensus estimates.
Hard data includes measurable indicators like nonfarm payrolls, retail sales, industrial production, CPI inflation, and GDP, reflecting real economic performance.
On the other hand, economic surprises of soft data fell to -11 points, creating a historic gap.
Soft data includes survey-based sentiment indicators such as services and manufacturing PMIs, consumer and CEO confidence, or business optimism, often reflecting future expectations.
This divergence shows that the economy appears strong while sentiment across households and businesses is deteriorating.
Asset owners are the only winners.
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#DecemberMarketOutlook