Did everyone see the 21:30 data just now? As soon as this week's initial jobless claims numbers were released, the market immediately took a hit. To be honest, you really need to keep a close eye on such key data points, otherwise you won’t even know what caused the market to shift.

But the most crucial part is still ahead—at exactly 3:00 a.m. on December 10, the Federal Reserve will announce its December interest rate decision, which directly determines whether there will be a rate cut at the end of the year. How is the market viewing this now? The November ADP employment data came in at -32,000, which is much worse than the expected +10,000. After the data was released, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December slightly fell to 88.8%.

However, based on a comprehensive analysis of various indicators, the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is still quite high. In the next few days, the volatility of mainstream coins like #ETH走势分析 $BTC $ETH will likely follow policy expectations, so I suggest everyone stay tuned and be ready to adjust your strategy at any time.