Has the market crashed? Or is this just another “washout” to scare off retail investors?

When everyone is shouting “the bull market is over,” last cycle’s signal king Murad suddenly pops up, drops 116 data points, and says: The bull run will last until 2026.

Sounds crazy? But look at these numbers before you decide to roast him.

**Technical side? Already bottomed out.**

Bitcoin is now stuck in the $79,000 to $85,000 range—not just a random support level, but the ETF entry cost, market average, and a critical intersection of multiple moving averages. Weekly RSI? Dropped to its lowest point since the 2020 pandemic crash. What does that mean? Historical data shows: every time it drops this low, a rebound rally almost always follows.

**Sentiment? Capitulation is here.**

The percentage of short-term holders in profit is at a five-year low. Fear & Greed Index? 10/100, fully flatlined. Social media is flooded with despair screenshots, with “I sold,” “Goodbye crypto” posts everywhere. But smart money knows: when retail completely gives up, that’s usually when the trend quietly reverses.

**Macro? The green light is on.**

Probability of a Fed rate cut in December has soared to 81%, and years of quantitative tightening are about to end. More importantly, the current US administration is friendlier to crypto than ever, with much greater policy certainty. Add up these signals—do you really think the market will keep dying?

But the real core shift is something most people haven’t even noticed:

**Bitcoin is going through its “IPO moment.”**

Early holders’ coins are being transferred, batch by batch, onto the balance sheets of traditional financial institutions through the legal channel of spot ETFs. The share of Bitcoin held by ETFs has quietly risen from 3% to 7.1%. And 98% of ETF holdings are in “diamond hands”—these institutions are putting real money down and betting on 2026.

The market has given 116 signals. Every sign points in the same direction:

This isn’t the end. This is a “stress test” before a longer, stronger bull market.

The real question now isn’t “Do you dare to buy the dip,” but “Can you even recognize this opportunity?”