$ETH Rate Cut Expectations Soar to 94%? Don’t Pop the Champagne Yet

Did you see the latest data? Prediction markets show the probability of a Fed rate cut in December has soared to 94%. What does this number mean? Basically, the market thinks “it’s a done deal, a sure thing.” Tonight’s nonfarm payroll data is certainly important, but honestly, with such one-sided expectations, it’s hard to say if it will really make much of a splash.

What does this mean for those of us holding crypto? To put it bluntly—the good news may have already been priced in. Take a look at the recent recovery in crypto prices; how much of that is driven by these rate cut expectations? What you really need to watch out for is “everyone thinking the same way.” History tells us that when the market is convinced something is certain, even the slightest deviation can lead to a “sell the news” scenario where good news turns into a negative reaction.

A few key points to keep in mind:

Don’t fall into the “buy the rumor, sell the news” trap: Rushing in to buy just because you see a 94% probability? Especially around major data releases, when market sentiment is at its peak, that’s often the riskiest time.

What really matters isn’t just whether they cut rates: It’s about the Fed’s outlook on rates next year, and what tone Powell sets. That’s what will determine whether the rally can continue, not just a one-off rate cut.

Position management always comes first: Before any major event, your position size should let you sleep well at night. Don’t let temporary optimism cloud your judgment—risk management discipline beats any analysis.

Remember this golden rule: When market consensus is at its strongest, that’s when things are most likely to go haywire. Protecting your capital and profits is always more important than making a big bet.