$ZEC Major economic data incoming tonight—Is a rate cut almost certain?
On December 4, the US is set to unveil some big moves. At 8:30 PM, the November Challenger job cuts data will warm things up; at 9:30 PM, last week’s initial jobless claims will be released—market expectations are around 220,000. The main event comes later: at 11:00 PM, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index and September factory orders MoM will be announced together.
While these data points are important, to be honest, the market has already priced in a 25 basis point rate cut in December as a done deal. Just look at Polymarket’s odds—as of now, the probability of a rate cut has soared to 94%.
In this context, tonight’s data is more of a confirmation than a game-changer. Unless there’s a big surprise (positive or negative), the Fed is unlikely to change its mind.
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WhaleMistaker
· 12-05 08:35
94% is already locked in, tonight is just a formality.
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ProbablyNothing
· 12-04 12:53
Betting at 94% odds... that's basically betting that the Fed won't stir things up.
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RektDetective
· 12-04 12:46
94% probability? This should be solid now, just waiting for the official announcement from the Federal Reserve.
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LayerZeroEnjoyer
· 12-04 12:46
A 94% probability has already been decided, so tonight we're just waiting in vain.
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ShitcoinConnoisseur
· 12-04 12:42
94% probability... Oh my, that's just ridiculous. A rate cut is basically a sure thing now.
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NftBankruptcyClub
· 12-04 12:32
94% probability? Then I'll just wait and see the opposite happen, haha.
$ZEC Major economic data incoming tonight—Is a rate cut almost certain?
On December 4, the US is set to unveil some big moves. At 8:30 PM, the November Challenger job cuts data will warm things up; at 9:30 PM, last week’s initial jobless claims will be released—market expectations are around 220,000. The main event comes later: at 11:00 PM, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index and September factory orders MoM will be announced together.
While these data points are important, to be honest, the market has already priced in a 25 basis point rate cut in December as a done deal. Just look at Polymarket’s odds—as of now, the probability of a rate cut has soared to 94%.
In this context, tonight’s data is more of a confirmation than a game-changer. Unless there’s a big surprise (positive or negative), the Fed is unlikely to change its mind.