$ZEC Major economic data incoming tonight—Is a rate cut almost certain?

On December 4, the US is set to unveil some big moves. At 8:30 PM, the November Challenger job cuts data will warm things up; at 9:30 PM, last week’s initial jobless claims will be released—market expectations are around 220,000. The main event comes later: at 11:00 PM, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index and September factory orders MoM will be announced together.

While these data points are important, to be honest, the market has already priced in a 25 basis point rate cut in December as a done deal. Just look at Polymarket’s odds—as of now, the probability of a rate cut has soared to 94%.

In this context, tonight’s data is more of a confirmation than a game-changer. Unless there’s a big surprise (positive or negative), the Fed is unlikely to change its mind.