From last night to this morning, a set of intriguing signals appeared in the global markets.

US employment data came in unexpectedly weak, and expectations for a rate cut in June instantly soared to 89%. US stocks responded by rising, gold extended its strength, and oil opened higher due to geopolitical tensions—this follows the standard logic of risk asset repricing. But even more thought-provoking was Elon Musk’s rare public warning: the US’s $38.3 trillion debt is approaching a critical threshold.

History never repeats itself exactly, but it often rhymes. Whenever we see this “monetary easing expectations + credit system concerns” combo at the macro level, Bitcoin and Ethereum are often re-examined—not because they are flawless, but because they offer an “exit option.”

This time, the logical chain is straightforward:
Rising rate cut expectations → pressure on the US dollar index → increased relative appeal of dollar-denominated crypto assets;
Debt crisis concerns emerge → traditional credit anchors are questioned → Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative regains attention;
Energy and financial sectors show unusual moves → capital seeks new outlets for volatility → high-consensus crypto assets come into focus.

The market has already responded: Bitcoin has regained the $93,000 level, and Ethereum surged over 4% in a single day. This is not just a technical rebound; it looks more like the market is positioning itself with real capital flows ahead of some macro shift that has yet to fully unfold.

Of course, caution is also necessary. Market resonance often occurs during the brewing phase of a storm, not after it breaks. Recession warnings collide with easing expectations, risk aversion meets inflation hedging—this contradictory mix can create both opportunities and traps.

Hold your positions and stay sharp. Do you think this is the beginning of a new cycle, or just a brief emotional release?