2025-12-04 07:21:14

Recently, I've been focusing on two key dates: the 10th is the Fed's interest rate decision, and the market expects a fairly high probability of a third rate cut this year; on the 19th, Japan might raise rates, which could absorb the liquidity released by the US.

From a technical perspective, yesterday's long wick down was quickly recovered—a classic bull shakeout. Remember this: rapid rises and falls are usually fake moves; true trends don’t move that fast. The W-bottom has already formed on the 4-hour chart, and the neckline has been broken, making this structure quite solid.

There's a high probability of another pullback before the rate cut, so during this period, it's mainly buy-the-dip strategy. When the market reaches a point where no one dares to short anymore, that's the real signal to watch out for.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

15 Likes

Reward
15
8
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

OnchainFortuneTeller

· 12-07 02:58

Damn, this round of manipulation is really disgusting, it's the same old shakeout routine again.

View OriginalReply0

ChainProspector

· 12-06 20:11

It's always about shakeouts and double bottoms; I'm tired of hearing the same old lines, haha.

View OriginalReply0

NFTBlackHole

· 12-05 19:04

That rate cut on the 10th is basically set in stone, just waiting for people to buy in. --- I've seen this W-bottom breaking the neckline setup countless times, but this time it really feels solid. --- Is Japan raising rates to take over the bag? Feels like another round of retail investors getting fleeced. --- Buying the dip is right, but who the hell knows where the dip actually is? --- Both sharp rises and drops are fake moves—so when’s the real move coming... --- The day the market doesn’t even dare to short, I’ll be long gone. --- At this pace, there’s gotta be another shakeout before the 10th. --- The wick drops and instantly retracts—bulls are dancing right now. --- I’m eyeing the 4-hour W-bottom, just waiting to see how far it goes after breaking the neckline. --- The Fed prints money, Japan takes the bag—is capital really that obedient?

View OriginalReply0

ProveMyZK

· 12-04 07:45

Damn, it's that same market manipulation theory again. Does saying the structure is stable really make it stable every time? I'll just wait and see if Japan can handle this wave on the 19th.

View OriginalReply0

ImpermanentPhilosopher

· 12-04 07:40

Damn, that hit really hard. Luckily, I didn’t get dumped out, haha.

View OriginalReply0

BlockTalk

· 12-04 07:33

The time gap between the 10th and the 19th, with US and Japan policies—one loosening, one tightening—liquidity is just getting squeezed like this, it's pretty interesting. The W-bottom breaking the neckline does look nice, but I'm just worried it might be a false breakout. I'm waiting for the pullback before the rate cut, just buy on the dip and that's it.

View OriginalReply0

SchrodingerAirdrop

· 12-04 07:26

Japan's rate hike on the 19th will definitely make things more interesting.

View OriginalReply0

ApeEscapeArtist

· 12-04 07:23

I also saw that instant drop, damn, I thought I was going bankrupt, but it turned out to be just a shakeout trick.

View OriginalReply0