No Investor “Rides the Entire Wave” - And You Don’t Need To Either

In my early years entering the crypto market, I also got caught up in the “super technical” advice like: “How to buy at the exact bottom, sell at the exact top.” “How to hold from the start to the end of the bull run.” At that time, it sounded really cool, but in reality… I was never able to do it. Later, after reading a lot about Buffett, Munger, and even Pabrai, I realized: The idea of “eating the whole bull” simply doesn’t exist in the real world of investing.

Buffett teaches something very different: if you want to survive, you have to know when to exit early. Buffett doesn’t wait for the top. Li Ka-shing doesn’t wait for the top either. The strongest players in the market have never thought about “eating the last piece.” What are they afraid of? They’re afraid of being late. And to avoid being late, they accept being early. Repeat 3 times to remember: To avoid being late, they accept being early. To avoid being late, they accept being early. To avoid being late, they accept being early.

Investing is not a game of guessing tops and bottoms. Investing is about risk control.

Why can’t you exit at the top? Because the top always comes with high uncertainty, big swings, and a huge risk of crashing. In this zone, the market is no longer a place to make money, but a place for the market to “take back” what you’ve previously earned. So experienced people do one thing: The higher the price → the bigger the risk → the higher the take-profit ratio.

Investing is about picking the part you understand best—not holding through the whole journey. Buffett talks about the “circle of competence.” You can only profit from the part of the market you understand. You only keep your gains where you have the highest probability. An investor doesn’t need to be good at everything. They just need to be good enough at one thing. Just like Pabrai or Doan Vinh Binh: they only focus on 1–2 assets with extremely high certainty. That’s why, when the market enters a risky zone, they don’t chase the last bit—because that part isn’t certain.

In crypto, this is 10 times more true. In a bull market, volatility is highest, temptation is greatest, risk is also highest. Newcomers see x2 – x3 opportunities, but they forget: however much upside there is, there’s just as much risk of a big crash. A value investor won’t chase a 70% win – 30% loss opportunity with a 100% drawdown. They only play games where they have a 90–95% chance to win, and even if they lose, only lose 20–30%. If a bull run crashes 70%, a whole year’s work might not recover it.

So what do good investors do? If they have 1 million USD: All in is dangerousStanding completely aside means risking missing the waveAllocating incorrectly easily leads to getting caught by FOMO

Therefore, they have to rely on their own circle of competence: ✔ Only accumulate when probability is high ✔ Only hold when risk is low ✔ Only exit when volatility becomes unpredictable ✔ Always have the ability to stay out ✔ But also be able to go in strong when the opportunity “falls within what they understand”

Conclusion Investing isn’t a subject you can “teach” or “cram” into someone. Just like no one can teach you how to flatter your boss—it’s something you have to realize for yourself. Some people are born to handle risk. Others are suited for patience. But no one is suited to eating from the start to the end of the bull run. In crypto, every coin looks like it can x2 – x3. But each person can only capture a certain part—the part they understand, are confident in, and are willing to take responsibility for. Investing = choosing the most certain segment within your capability. Let others take the rest. That’s why those who are truly rich from this market… always exit before the crowd even thinks about taking profits.