History Has “Killed” ZEC Twice, But 2025 Is Strangely Scary: Opportunity or Trap?

Question

Looking back at the ZEC chart from 2017 to 2025, I have to be blunt: this is one of the rare coins that makes me look back at the past and… gives me goosebumps. History is like a mirror reflecting cycles, but by 2025 with ZEC, this mirror has shattered into pieces – technicals are signaling a crash, yet capital keeps flowing in like a flood. So is this a “trap play” or a “new scenario for the crypto market”?

🔥 Two Previous Cycles: ZEC Was a “Top Killer” 2018 Cycle: BTC peaked, and 21 days later, ZEC soared to around $955.Capital inflow exceeded 48,000 ZEC/day, clear sign of peak FOMO.Behind the scenes, whales quietly dumped 35% of their holdings.9 months later: price dropped to $49, evaporating 95%, faster than I lose hair.

2021 Cycle: ZEC peaked early, around $367.For 5 straight days, net capital inflow averaged over 22,000 ZEC/day, as if it was set to return to its glory days.The reality? Whales quietly reduced their positions by 18%.14 months later: down to $28, a 92% drop – a lesson that “buying the top is a curse.”

⚠️ 5 “Cycle Killing” Signals – Never Wrong RSI > 85, then drops < 70 → always a sign the market is “dead.”Continuous inflows to exchanges → 90% likely retail FOMO.Whales reduce holdings by 10–35% → distribution in progress.MA50 crosses below MA200 → trend officially dead.High FOMO – real demand is near zero, only speculation remains.

🚨 But 2025 Is a Strange Game RSI is extremely overbought – historically, this should mean a strong correction.But instead of capital exiting, it’s… flowing in.Retail is still chasing, but whales are accumulating instead.Never before in ZEC’s history has there been such a divergence: “technicals warn – capital accumulates.”

It’s like a scene in a horror movie: the ghost doesn’t scare you, but… invites you into the car.

🎯 Two Clear Scenarios for ZEC 2025

Bearish Scenario – ZEC Repeats Deep Cycle Crash Trigger conditions: BTC breaks key mid-term levels, especially the 200D MA.Market sentiment shifts from “everyone’s getting rich” → “everyone panics.” Projection: ZEC drops quickly by 40–50%.Followed by a weakening phase of 9–15 months.Falling to the $40 – $80 range is entirely possible.Anyone buying the overbought zone will have to wait… over a year. → This is the painful but safest scenario based on historical logic.
Bullish Scenario – ZEC Opens “Long-Term Uptrend Structure” Trigger conditions: Privacy demand increases as countries tighten transparent blockchain regulations.ZEC’s anonymous transaction rate stays above 25%, ideally 30–35%.Big money keeps accumulating instead of exiting. Projection: ZEC may correct 20–30% first.Then breaks previous highs, entering the “privacy cycle.”Becomes one of the few altcoins to go against the BTC cycle. → I lean toward this scenario, but confirmation from capital flow indicators is still needed.

🧭 “ZEC Monitoring Handbook” – My 8-Year Personal Playbook Exchange inflows/outflows: If recent months saw constant outflows but suddenly, 3 straight days of inflows → whales are setting up. MA50 – MA200: If these two cross negatively, cut your position immediately. Don’t wait. ZEC Privacy Rate: This is the “soul.”

25% → still room to grow. <20% → almost purely speculative. BTC’s MA200: If BTC breaks down → don’t expect any alt to survive. Whale behavior: If local whales split coins into dozens of small wallets → 100% preparing to dump.

🧩 Summary ZEC 2025 is a case of “history out of sync with history”: Technicals say sellCapital says buyWhales are accumulatingRetail is FOMOPRIVACY demand is genuinely rising I favor the “structural uptrend cycle,” but only if the five indicators above don’t flash red.

🗣️ Which Scenario Do You Pick? Will ZEC repeat the familiar 85–95% drop? Or will it become the first coin to kick off the “privacy bull run”? Leave your thoughts below. If you want more “chart + capital flow breakdowns,” be sure to follow me.