December 4 Early Market Analysis: Bitcoin and Ethereum Oscillate Upward, Pullbacks May Be a Good Opportunity for Bulls to Position

#比特币 #以太坊 #技术分析 #加密货币 #Intraday Trading

In the early hours of December 4, the crypto market trended unilaterally upward. After surging during the Asian session, both Bitcoin and Ethereum saw slight pullbacks but overall maintained a strong consolidation pattern. Although current prices have deviated from the intraday highs, four-hour technical patterns show that bullish momentum has not yet been exhausted, and short-term pullbacks may provide buy-the-dip opportunities.

Strong rally overnight, risk-off sentiment eases
From midnight to early morning, Bitcoin started from a low of $91,733 and peaked at $94,185, a gain of nearly 2.7%, before consolidating near the $93,000 round number. Ethereum followed suit, rising from $3,062 to $3,216 and currently trading around $3,180, with only limited short-term pullback.

The logic behind this round of gains is clear: market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December are rising, coupled with a return of risk-off sentiment due to uncertainty in the Bank of Japan's policy, leading to renewed capital inflows into the highly liquid crypto market. In addition, a slight weakening of the US Dollar Index has provided some breathing room for risk assets.

Technical analysis: Four-hour trend remains in upward channel
The current four-hour chart shows a classic oscillating upward structure:
Healthy trend channel: Price is moving steadily within the upward channel, with all three Bollinger Bands spreading upward in sync. The channel is widening as prices rise, indicating increased market volatility and favorable conditions for the next accelerated rally.
Strong momentum indicators: The MACD fast and slow lines remain firmly above the zero axis in the bullish zone, with buying momentum continuing to flow in and market confidence somewhat restored. Meanwhile, both KDJ and RSI indicators have entered overbought territory, showing strong bullish momentum, but caution is needed for short-term profit-taking that could trigger pullbacks.
Key levels: If Bitcoin can hold above $93,000, the first upside target will be $94,500, with further resistance at $95,500 (previous high-volume area). For Ethereum, $3,200 is the short-term dividing line between bull and bear; a breakout could see a test of $3,270, with strong resistance at the $3,300 round number.

Trading advice: Follow the trend, watch pullback strength
The market remains in a bullish pattern. Although overbought indicators suggest the risk of a pullback, the overall trend is intact. It is recommended to stick to a "trend-following, buy the dip" approach.

Bitcoin (BTC) strategy:
• Entry range: $92,500 - $93,000
• Stop loss: $91,800 (break below the four-hour Bollinger Band midline)
• Target: First target $94,500, second target $95,500
• Position management: Keep leverage within 2-3x to avoid forced liquidation during volatility

Ethereum (ETH) strategy:
• Entry range: $3,170 - $3,200
• Stop loss: $3,120 (break below $3,150 support level)
• Target: First target $3,270, second target $3,300
• Risk warning: If $3,200 cannot be held, watch for a potential pullback to $3,100

Risk warning: Overbought signals and macro variables coexist
Even though the technicals are bullish, investors should be aware of two potential risks:
1. Overbought pullback risk: Both KDJ and RSI are in overbought territory. If there is no sustained buying in the afternoon, prices could quickly retreat to the $92,000 area for indicator correction.
2. Macro event disruptions: There will be a Fed official speech tonight. Any hawkish hints regarding the December meeting could trigger profit-taking among bulls. Also, be aware of the correlation with the US stock market after the open.

Conclusion: Oscillating upward trend continues, wait for secondary confirmation
In summary, although some bullish momentum was consumed in the early session on December 4, the overall uptrend is not over. The current phase is more suitable for short-term traders to buy low and sell high, while mid-to-long-term investors may wait for price pullbacks to key supports at $91,000 (BTC) and $3,050 (ETH) before positioning.

Remember, when trading in overbought zones, position management is more important than being right about the direction. Control your risk to capture high-probability opportunities amid volatility. $BTC ‌$ETH ‌