December kicked off with a sharp drop in BTC right from the monthly candle's opening price – and quickly formed a local bottom on the very first day. For those who have followed monthly candle behavior long enough, this is actually not too unusual: many months have seen similar “one-time jolts” at the start of the period before the main trend begins.

Typically, the first reversal zone of the month (Initial High/Low) appears around day 3–6. This time, it happened earlier, but it’s still within an acceptable probability, as more than 82% of months in history have formed their pivot later.

The most important thing this month reminds us of once again: If a monthly candle surges strongly in one direction right after opening, without leaving a wick, then that High/Low is usually weak and likely to be retested or broken through soon.

This behavior repeats many times — when a new month opens too strongly or too weakly, it often sweeps traders up in emotions, but in reality, it’s a sign that the market hasn’t “locked in” a direction and is setting up a return to test the opening area.

So, next time you see a new monthly candle running wildly in one direction right after opening, don’t rush to FOMO.

Carefully observe reversal signals on lower timeframes and prepare for the scenario where price returns to retest the month's open area.

Crypto is indeed highly volatile — but its structure is much more rule-based than we think. This month is simply yet another example.