The US November ADP employment data has just been released, and the numbers are shockingly bad.

The actual number of jobs decreased by 32,000, while the market had generally expected an increase of 10,000. Last month, there was still an increase of 42,000. This gap is not a minor deviation—it's the weakest performance in the job market since March 2023. The data is there, and the pace of economic cooling may be faster than most people anticipated.

What does this set of numbers mean for the market?

First, let's talk about the Fed's stance. Their monetary policy is anchored on employment and inflation, and now there's a clear crack appearing in the employment data. Market expectations for a rate cut in December will quickly heat up. The dollar will come under pressure, while expectations for looser liquidity will start to take hold.

Next is the reaction of risk assets. Looking back at history, expectations of rate cuts are often accompanied by collective excitement among risk assets—US stocks and gold are obvious beneficiaries, and assets like Bitcoin, which are highly sensitive to liquidity, even more so. Major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Dogecoin typically perform well under loose monetary expectations. The logic for capital seeking returns is simple: in a low-interest environment, it's either chasing yields or hedging against devaluation.

There's another point that's easy to overlook: short-term volatility isn't that important; what's important is that the narrative direction has changed. Over the past year, the market has repeatedly digested the expectation of "higher rates for longer," but now that logic may be reversing. Shifting from "higher for longer" to "faster and earlier"—the value of this directional change is much more worth watching than one or two days of price swings.

Of course, there's another interpretation: with employment data collapsing like this, is this a recession signal? If the economy really has a hard landing, can rate cuts save the market? This is the worry of the bears, and it's not without reason.

The data is on the table, and the logic is laid out. Is it time to seize the certainty of a macro shift, or wait cautiously for more signals? What do you think?