The US stock market on December 3 is likely to continue its upward oscillation, but don’t get too excited just yet—sector divergence is obvious, and key data could tank the market at any moment.

First, the good news. Pre-market futures data looks solid: Dow futures are up 0.23%, S&P 500 is up 0.20%, and Nasdaq is up 0.18%, which is a good start. On the individual stock level, things are even more explosive—Marvell Technology surged over 11%, while UMC and ASE, these Chinese semiconductor stocks, also rose more than 2%. In the cryptocurrency space, BTC broke through the $90,000 mark, signaling a clear rebound in overall market risk appetite.

There's also some interesting policy news. Trump recently hinted he might nominate the dovish Hassett as the next Fed Chair, and the market immediately began betting on a faster pace of rate cuts in 2026. This expectation supports tech stock valuations; the previous day Intel led gains, and the semiconductor ETF is up over 1% pre-market. Overall, the tech sector is carrying the flag.

But there are also plenty of pitfalls. The biggest problem is weak trading volume—while the three major indexes are rising, trading volume hasn't expanded. The Dow's rebound is entirely supported by existing funds, so it's hard to say how long this trend can last. Even more crucially, tonight will see the release of November's ADP employment data and the Services PMI. If employment numbers are too strong, the market will worry the Fed won’t cut rates; if the PMI blows past expectations, it could trigger fears of economic overheating—either data point could bring the market down if it surprises to the upside.

Sector divergence is also obvious. Energy and biotech sectors are seeing significant capital outflows, and Chinese stocks haven’t caught up with this rebound at all. The pattern of semiconductors and tech stocks standing out makes it hard for the broader market to sustain a rally.

Overall, a slight increase shouldn’t be a problem, but a major rally will need more catalysts. Tonight’s data is a watershed moment—keep a close eye on it.