#数字货币市场洞察 $BTC $BNB Rate cut expectations are running high—is the crypto market about to take off?

Honestly, the entire market is watching the Fed right now. The latest CME data is pretty explosive—a 25 basis point rate cut in December now has a probability of 89.2%. That number is basically a done deal.

What does a rate cut mean for the crypto space? Simply put, money gets cheaper. Once traditional finance folks see rates going down, they’ll recalculate: fixed income isn’t as attractive anymore, so should they allocate more to high-risk, high-reward assets? Bitcoin, which serves as both a safe-haven like gold and carries some speculative edge, is often among the first to benefit. With prices consolidating for so long, this could be the catalyst it’s been waiting for.

What’s even more interesting is the timeline. The data also shows that by January next year, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is over 25%. The market isn’t just betting on a single rate cut, but on a whole easing cycle. Once this expectation becomes consensus, risk appetite is likely to recover, and major coins like Ethereum could rally as well.

But let’s stay cool—expectations often reverse once they’re realized. The current 89% probability is actually already priced in, so the real focus should be on what Powell says next and whether inflation data continues to cooperate. Hype alone isn’t enough; sustained capital inflow is needed to support a real rally.