#ETH巨鲸增持 $ETH This recent price action looks bullish on the surface, but something just feels off.

To put it plainly, there's a divergence between price and volume—the price is climbing, yet trading volume is shrinking. Under normal circumstances, a genuine rally should be accompanied by an influx of capital. With this kind of rally on decreasing volume, it's most likely a false move. Bulls appear to be pushing things up, but it might just be a show.

Now, let's look at the levels. The 3120 level is interesting—many retail traders are likely to think "it's about to take off" and jump in here. But 3170 is even more crucial; last year, a lot of people got trapped at this level, and there’s heavy overhead resistance waiting to be sold into. If the big players want to unload, these two levels are natural slaughterhouses—first, they pump the price to grab attention, then dump on the latecomers.

This "fake rally, real dump" playbook is nothing new. The big players have their own cost basis and aren't going to let retail traders cash out easily at the top. They first create the illusion of a breakout, wait for retail to take the bait, then quickly dump the price, buy back at lower levels, and repeat the cycle.

What about the next two days? Personally, I think the most likely scenario is a low-volume push higher followed by a sharp reversal. Of course, there's a chance we get a real breakout above 3170 with strong volume and keep climbing, but that requires solid trading activity, and the odds aren't great. As for an immediate collapse to 2900? There's only about a 20% chance, but it's not impossible.

So at this point, don't get swept up just because prices are rising. If you’re already holding, consider trimming your position or setting a stop-loss for protection. If you’re on the sidelines, don't rush in—wait for a clear direction. The ones who survive longest in the market are usually not the most aggressive.

Keep a close eye on trading volume and those key price levels, and don’t let emotions override your judgment.