#ETH走势分析 "Market Recovery? Don’t Rush In Yet—The Truth Behind This Rally"

After the recent balance sheet policy adjustment, market sentiment has indeed improved quite a bit. $BTC is back above $93,000, and $ETH has broken through the $3,050 mark. But this rebound feels more like everyone is betting early on a potential "Fed pivot to easing," rather than real money flowing in.

Many people are treating overnight repo operations as a sign of liquidity injection, but that's actually a misunderstanding. In essence, repo just gives the banking system a "temporary transfusion," addressing short-term funding shortages without creating new liquidity. The money is still the same money, with most of it hiding out in safe-haven assets and waiting on the sidelines—not truly flowing into risk assets at all.

**The key variable is actually the SLR ( Supplementary Leverage Ratio ) regulation.** If this metric isn't loosened, banks can't expand their balance sheets, nor can they absorb the Treasury's continuous issuance of government bonds. The result is liquidity just circulates within the system—drained one day, replenished the next—never forming a sustained easing environment. Under these conditions, crypto asset price moves are mainly driven by sentiment, lacking the capital foundation needed for a long-term rally.

There's another risk that's easy to overlook: **The Bank of Japan may continue raising rates.** If the yen strengthens, global arbitrage capital will have to flow back to Japan, which in turn tightens dollar liquidity. At that point, not only will there be no incremental funds coming from the US, but even existing capital could retreat, putting double pressure on $BTC and $ETH prices.

So, at the end of the day, this price rally is the market betting on a future policy pivot, but that bet hasn’t paid off yet. As long as the SLR rules remain unchanged, rate-cut timelines are unclear, and expectations of further BOJ hikes persist, the upside for crypto will be strictly limited by the macro environment. Going heavy on leverage now is basically walking a tightrope.

**The real start of a bull market isn’t when “balance sheet reduction stops,” but when “banks are free to expand their balance sheets.”** Until that moment arrives, controlling your position size is more important than picking the right direction. The market won’t punish those who wait; it only punishes the impulsive.