Tonight at 21:15 Beijing time, the US will release the November ADP employment data.

This time it's a bit special—the official non-farm payroll report won't be released this week, so this "mini non-farm" report has become the only lifeline the market can grab. The general market expectation is an increase of 10,000 jobs. To be honest, that's already quite weak.

Now, the Fed's December rate cut is basically just waiting for final confirmation, and the key is whether tonight's data will support or disrupt that. If the data is indeed weak enough, expectations for a rate cut will soar; but if it unexpectedly beats forecasts, the story may have to be rewritten.

In any case, once this number is out tonight, the short-term direction of the crypto market will basically be clear. I suggest keeping a close eye on it.