What happened in the crypto world last night? BTC shot straight up from $84,000 to $92,000, surging 9.5% in one go! ETH was even crazier, breaking through the $3,000 mark and rising over 10%.

How fierce was this rebound? In just 24 hours, $400 million worth of positions were liquidated across the entire network, with 110,000 people directly wiped out. The worst hit was a $13 million BTC contract on a certain trading platform, which went to zero in an instant. This time, the bears were truly caught off guard.

Why did the surge happen suddenly?

Don’t think this is just a technical rebound. The real catalyst was a signal from the Fed—the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut on December 10 has soared to 89.2%, up from less than 40% just a week ago.

The reason is simple: November’s PPI data was disappointing, and inflation pressure is clearly dropping. If the rate cut really happens, the dollar will weaken, US Treasury yields will fall, and funds will naturally flow into risk assets. More importantly, the market is already betting on consecutive rate cuts in Q1 2026, so institutional funds are starting to position early.

Although Trump’s tariff policy is making waves, the Fed itself has said that the main theme before 2026 is still a “soft landing,” and the liquidity environment won’t tighten.

What about going forward?

Just look at history—every Fed rate cut cycle, BTC has averaged gains of over 200%. The market is now only in the early stage of the “rising expectations → capital inflow → price increase” cycle. If policy really shifts, the crypto market could see a liquidity-driven rally.

Of course, these wild swings also remind us: leverage is not something to mess around with. The $400 million in liquidations is a stark lesson, and market sentiment can shift faster than flipping a page. Policy expectations are a bullish factor, but until they materialize, volatility will continue.

Keep a close eye on December 10. This Fed meeting could determine the market’s direction for the next few months.